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Indicators Estimating Reality of War Choice

Indicators Estimating Reality of War Choice
folder_openJuly 2006 Aggression access_time10 years ago
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By Ibrahim Al-Amine

Al-Khabar Newspaper

When is "Israel" going to declare a new war on Lebanon?

The purpose beyond this question is not to stimulate an irrational issue; neither is it to impose terrifying atmospheres or to stimulate resolves. The mathematical logic points out that the "Israeli" Command must provide answers for a series of questions before making any decision, whereby the main question is about the Military's announcement of readiness to declare this war. The other questions are respectively about the nature of the required targets, about the nature of the achievable targets, and about the extent of preparedness on the political, public, and logistic levels within "Israel". These questions are needed to face the requirements of this choice, and, accordingly, to estimate the size of the prices expected to be paid, in addition to the nature of the regional and international circumstances that surround the Arab and "Israeli" reality.

Well, the same mathematical logic can provide quick answers to these questions; yet, these answers quickly imply a negative result: "Israel" is unready to declare war now. But that does not mean it is not reflecting on this issue or that it is not trying to provide positive answers for the coming discussion. The most important fact at this stage, however, is that "Israel" is unwillingly unable to do so - not upon the wish of foreign sides; upon "Israel's" wish to let other sides accomplish the mission; or upon "Israel's" sense of responsibility. The harsh truth is that "Israel" is unable to do so, and that's it.
Hereupon, this result means that the Hebrew "State" has to go round the same closed ring again: the lateness of war means that the enemies in the north and the south will make use of the quietness to reinforce their capabilities. Also, the result means that any attempt to strike these reinforcements might lead to war without perfect readiness for it. Accordingly, "Israel" can only regard the quantity and quality of arms that the fighters in Lebanon and Palestine get; and it can regard the size of changes in the working mechanics of certain militaries in Syria, Iran, or even... Iraq!
So what can be done?

"Israel's" decision-makers see that the logical answer means they must ask the involved institutions to work powerfully in order to provide these necessary elements to avoid failure. In this context, the Second Lebanon War (in 2006) is treated as a main joint of the confrontation between the Arabs and "Israel". Therefore, we can understand a lot of things that happened through the five past years... For instance, "Israel" has witnessed an increasing rate of interest in what it calls "the Inner Frontline". Likewise, "Israel" has worked on involving international sides like Europe and the United States in this war when necessary.

In the meantime, it is beneficial to list a group of developments, which allow whoever wants to consider their nature to reflect on the issue and derive the appropriate results:

- "Israel" has performed the grandest military maneuver ever in its history, and as the maneuver ended, the Minister of the Interior Frontline, Metan Felnai, declared that "it was successful, and upon its success, we've realized the size of the price we'll have to pay in a war like this. Actually, this urges us to delay the choice of war since "Israel" isn't ready to pay this price."

- Iran has performed a huge military maneuver, too, using different kinds of arms and missiles, some of which haven't been announced for special reasons; however, "Israel", the United States, and Europe have found out the details of this issue. Thus, Uzi Rubin, one of "the fathers of the "Israeli""Heat-seeker" missile (guided by infrared homing), said that "Iran has made a much greater progress than Korea, and it has jumped faster than we expected concerning the required periods of time to accomplish the huge tasks. In addition, the experiment of launching long-range missiles towards the Indian Ocean has shown Iran's ability to control missiles starting with the moment of their launching until they reach the target. The experiment has attracted the attention of whoever is interested in this issue to the fact that the distance between the launching point and the destination point is the same distance of the launching point and Europe."

- Some weeks ago, Turkey quit the decision of a military venture into the Syrian lands in the last moments. That was accompanied with a high "Israeli" readiness following the end of the maneuvers. That was after Turkey had been candidly threatened by Iran that the latter would war directly on Damascus's side in case a single Turkish soldier entered the Syrian lands.

- Iran has informed whoever is interested that it would forcefully prevent any attempt to divide Iraq and establish a state which separates Iran from Iraq on a side and another which separates Iran from Syria. That concurred with the increase in the rate of military operations against the American Forces in Iraq in the recent couple of months, in addition to the fighters' obvious use of Iranian explosives and military tools.

- " Israel" has declared that in the past months, the resistance forces in Gaza Strip succeeded in making use of the change in Egypt in order to enter thousands of missiles of different kinds into the Strip. Besides, "Israel" has announced that after the Syrian incidents broke out, Hizbullah transported big quantities of long-range missiles into Lebanon.

- The NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Forces have failed to achieve any results in Libya, and the participating countries have inclined to withdrawal from the Alliance acting against Gaddafi's government. That was preceded by the obvious disability of the American and European Militaries to have any venture on the ground; instead, they performed mere airstrikes that became no longer enough to resolve war. This fact has actually been a significant indicator regarding the reality of the abilities and situations of this Alliance in confrontation with any unique development; this is in comparison with the regional alliance Iran is leading.

Back to the same question:

How can "Israel" conduct a successful war on Lebanon or Syria in the absence of guarantees that the war won't be long, that the outcomes will be guaranteed, and that the prices will be the size of the mere rate which "Israel" is certain about?