Was Netanyahu Forced to Accept Defeat?

By Charles Abi Nader

“The prisoner exchange deal spells defeat for ‘Israel’ because it ends the war, even though Hamas has not been defeated.”

This is what “Israeli” far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said about the announced prisoner exchange deal between Tel Aviv and Hamas as he threatened to resign from the government if the draft of this deal is approved.

The most extreme and hardline elements of the “Israeli” media came together and said that “Israel's” defeat is clear with this deal.

According to this point of view, "the Gaza ceasefire agreement does not achieve the two goals that ‘Israel’ set for itself, which are eliminating Hamas and recovering the prisoners."

There are still dozens of ‘Israeli’ prisoners held in Gaza, and it is not clear how they will be released in the second stage, and Hamas – according to these media outlets – “is still the ruling organization in the Strip in the absence of another alternative."

The notion of defeat was reinforced by the overwhelming joy expressed by Palestinians in Gaza after the announcement of the ceasefire agreement.

All of the above confirms the Palestinians’ conviction that the enemy has been defeated despite the huge sacrifices they have made on all levels.

We can then ask ourselves:

Why did Netanyahu agree to the deal? Was he forced to accept it? What were the reasons that dictated he accept deal that most parties agreed would constitute a defeat for “Israel”?

There are several reasons for this outcome. The most important can be summed up as the following:

1-         The recent confrontations between “Israeli” units and the Palestinian resistance in the northern Gaza Strip, specifically in Beit Hanoun and Jabalia, and the large number of enemy casualties, had a significant impact on pushing Netanyahu to search for a way out of the quagmire in northern Gaza, which is practically the closest geographically to the settlements of the envelope and to the deployment sites of his military units;

The large number of “Israeli” military casualties shows that the resistance’s capabilities haven’t been significantly diminished. As such, Netanyahu understood the danger of advancing this losing process of attrition, without a clear path towards recovering the prisoners without painful concessions and dealing a knockout blow to the resistance, namely Hamas.

2-         It also became clear to Netanyahu that there was another intractable problem coming from the Yemeni maneuvers against “Israel” and its allies. “Israel” hasn’t figured out how to solve this problem despite the extensive intervention against Yemen, including the targeting of vital facilities and areas thought to host bases for launching Yemeni missiles and drones.

As Yemeni maneuvers in support of Gaza and the Palestinian people dragged on, it also became clear that the level of attrition within “Israel” had increased to a point where there was no longer any ability to confront or deal with it, as the lives of settlers inside the entity had become hell due to the constant nightmare of escaping to shelters; the “Israeli” air defenses were clearly unable to stop Yemeni missiles.

Meanwhile, joint Western and “Israeli” actions to silence the missile launch points and the Yemeni drones were also ineffective. The Americans and their allies couldn’t facilitate safe and open navigation in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandab Strait, without Yemeni disruptions.

3-         Lastly, the American insistence on speeding up the settlement also played a major role in pushing Netanyahu towards accepting the deal.

The American role came in two forms: from the Biden administration, which was rushing to score an achievement on a ceasefire deal before the end of its term, and from the Trump administration, which also rushed to end the Gaza genocide and resolve the prisoners’ file before taking over the White House.

All of this clarifies the real reasons that prompted Netanyahu to accept the deal. The question remains whether the “Israeli” Prime Minister is willing to continue accepting defeat by accepting the entirety of this deal or he plans to withdraw and continue his crazy war with no end on the horizon?