What Does Moscow’s Recognition of Donbass Independence Mean?

By Darko Lazar

Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of Ukraine’s breakaway Donbass republics has far-reaching implications for all parties involved. For starters, the move has a military dimension that enables the Kremlin to use Russia’s armed forces to pacify the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The wording used in a resolution passed by the Russian parliament, which backed President Vladimir Putin’s request for military deployments, is vague. It only says that Russian troops are to be used “in accordance with the Constitution,” and that their area of operations and objectives are to be determined by Putin himself.

When asked to elaborate, the Russian president told reporters that the scope of military operations “depends on the specific situation […] on the ground.”

This approach leaves the door open to diplomacy, and common sense dictates that Kiev would be foolish to engage in a shooting war with one of the strongest militaries in the world. But Kiev isn’t calling the shots, and common sense is up against Washington’s appetite for another proxy war with the Russians.

In fact, all indications on the ground are that a sizable Russian military deployment into Donbass is unavoidable, as Ukrainian forces amp up artillery attacks and attempt armed incursions. 

When evaluating the potential scope of operations, it’s also important to note that Moscow recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics within their proclaimed rather than actual borders. This means that Russia considers large urban centers such as Mariupol and Severodonetsk, which are currently under Ukrainian control, to be part of the breakaway regions.

Of course, the outcome of this potential showdown is a foregone conclusion. The Ukrainian army is demoralized and ill-prepared. Images aired by the media of planeloads of Western weapons arriving in Kiev are devoid of any real context.

The Ukrainians are not trained to use these weapons. Moreover, they lack a concrete military doctrine that would guide them through a punishing fight against a superior opponent, which has emerged triumphant from a long list of battlefields over the last two decades.

Among these are Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where a decisive Russian military intervention halted Georgia’s cruel, ethno-political conflict within a matter of days. If Moscow can apply the same recipe in Donbass, the conflict in Ukraine will finally be frozen and the world will get a quick peace, as opposed to the protracted and bloody war that Western officials are rooting for.

While it’s important to point out that Moscow’s recognition of Donbass’ independence is the beginning of an affair rather than its conclusion, for the residents in these breakaway regions, this marks the end of a nearly decade-long nightmare. Since overthrowing a democratically elected government in 2014, Western-backed Ukrainian nationalists have plunged their country into war and poverty, while perpetrating a genocide against the Russian-speaking population in the east.

Diplomacy and sanctions

Despite all the shock and outrage coming from the West, Russia’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics has a precedent. In 2008, the Americans and Europeans recognized Kosovo’s independence, ignoring a UN Security Council resolution that guaranteed the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia.

After bombing Serbia into submission and setting up NATO’s military infrastructure in Kosovo, the West gave the ethnic Albanians their quasi-state, relieving them of any obligations to negotiate a settlement with Belgrade.

Of course, Donbass and Kiev can still return to the negotiating table and revive the Minsk process in some form. But the many years of hostilities make it impossible to reintegrate ethnic Russians into Ukraine’s borders.

There is another major sticking point. As long as the West continues to ignore the Kremlin’s “red line” and insist on Ukraine’s NATO membership, the country’s territorial integrity cannot be guaranteed.

With that in mind, Putin’s speech – in which he recognized the independence of the two Donbass republics – marks the birth of a new Russian foreign policy approach. One that is based on the tacit acknowledgment that Western sanctions and attacks are eternal, and don’t constitute a response to Moscow’s actions in Syria, Georgia, Ukraine, or anywhere else.

As the Russian president eloquently put it: “Their one and only goal is to hold back the development of Russia. And they will keep doing so, just as they did before, even without any formal pretext just because we exist and refuse to compromise our sovereignty, national interests or values.”     

So, what is the cost of opposing Western hegemony? Sanctions, of course. Ordinary people will have to suffer – and not just Russians either.

Berlin’s announcement that it was halting the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia sent global energy prices soaring. It’s already been a cold and expensive winter in Europe, but the unnecessary spending looks set to continue because even the joint efforts of the US, Qatar, Algeria, and Norway won’t be enough to replace Russian gas on the continent.    

Meanwhile, sanctions on Russian banks and efforts to limit Moscow’s access to financial assets troubled the stock markets. All of this will only accelerate global inflation and plunge the world economy into a deeper crisis.

The list of Russian officials and businessmen being sanctioned will expand, of course, but this was already happening on an annual basis. Aside from additional restrictions imposed on Russia’s oil and gas sector, the export of high-tech goods will also be affected.

The West will also step up arms shipments to Kiev, increase pressure on Belarus, try to drive a wedge between Moscow and its allies in Asia, and work to prop up the so-called Russian opposition. 

This will be the new reality for Russians for the foreseeable future. Moscow, which has a solid record in pursuing a restrained and thoughtful macroeconomic policy, will likely minimize the blow by searching for other markets to sell its goods. 

It’s also noteworthy that the Russian tax service collects more money every year without raising taxes, while the state borrows very little money when compared to Western economic powerhouses. 

Here is a breakdown of public debt-to-GDP among some of the world’s leading economies: 

Russia: 18%

China: 67%, 

The Eurozone: 98%

The US: 128%

Japan: 266%.