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Are the Clouds of War Looming Over the Gulf?

Are the Clouds of War Looming Over the Gulf?
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Darko Lazar

From the "Israeli" occupation of Palestine to the crisis in Syria, the situation in the Middle East has always been complicated.

Are the Clouds of War Looming Over the Gulf?

But things went from complicated to incomprehensible when a Saudi-led group of countries severed ties with Qatar, accusing Doha of backing regional terrorists.

No one tried too hard to hide the irony. There was simply no point. The whole world knows that Riyadh's accusations against Doha are equivalent to Great Britain accusing the US of imperialism.

In the days that followed, the row gradually escalated, as member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] cut off and isolated one of their own through a series of brutal measures, including an economic blockade.

The reasons behind the rift

It's true that Doha has a history of pursuing an ambitious foreign policy with priorities that often clashed with those of its neighbor to the west.

However, its highly doubtful that this week's dramatic escalation is the product of Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or the financing of ‘bad' terrorist groups in the region as opposed to Riyadh's ‘good' ones.

Instead, the worst crisis to hit the GCC, since its founding in 1981, is the direct result of disagreements over Iran.

The timing of the crisis offers a great deal of insight into its causes, coming on the heels of Donald Trump's endorsement of Riyadh during the U.S. President's visit to Saudi Arabia in May.

It's no secret that the Qataris were unnerved by Trump's embrace of Riyadh's hardline policies as well as efforts to paint Iran as the chief source of instability in the region.

That being said, Qatar should not be confused for an Iranian ally.

Doha's motives are partly economic - Iran and Qatar share ownership of the world's biggest natural gas field. But the Qataris are also working to enrich their international portfolio, presenting themselves as an independent and influential state rather than a Saudi satellite.

Foreign interests

Washington's response to the crisis has been very strange. While the US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson urged Riyadh to ease the blockade on Qatar, warning that it was affecting America's fight against Daesh [Arabic acronym for"ISIS" / "ISIL"], Trump attacked Doha for funding terrorism.

During a Friday press conference in the White House, Trump said that Qatar has "historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level."

"I decided, along with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, our great generals and military people, the time had come to call on Qatar to end its funding ? they have to end that funding ? and its extremist ideology," he added.

But Trump's "great generals" would have likely directed their President's attention to the fact that the biggest concentration of US military personnel in the Middle East just so happens to be in Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base.

The sprawling base southwest of the Qatari capital is home to some 11,000 American soldiers. The strategically important facility, which can accommodate up to 120 aircraft, is also the forward headquarters of the US Air Force Central Command, Combined Air and Space Operations Center [CAOC] and the 379th Air Expedition Wing.

The CAOC is "the nerve center" of air campaigns across the region, overseeing US military air power in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and 18 other nations.

According to former Pentagon official, Michael Maloof, the base is meant to be "a coordinator for all GCC countries ... now with Qatar isolated there will be no military coordination and this can really have an impact on any kind of military NATO that they have in mind for the Arab states."

Meanwhile, the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet is located less than 100 kilometers away in Bahrain - a country now technically in a state of cold war with Qatar.

It goes without saying that a turbulent relationship between these two Gulf neighbors could seriously undermine US military activity across the whole Middle East region. Any further deterioration of the situation or some sort of military confrontation would be disastrous from the Americans.

And if things weren't complicated enough, Turkey - a US NATO ‘ally' - has its own troops in Qatar. The problem is that the Turks, unlike the Saudis and the Americans, are not interested in sanctioning Doha.

From the very start of the crisis, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that Ankara's chosen course of action would not run parallel to the one chartered by Washington and Riyadh.

The first thing Endogen did was to call his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, sending a very clear message about who he plans to coordinate his actions with.

Then, he swiftly signed a law to deploy Turkish troops to a base in Qatar.

"The number of Turkish warplanes and Turkish warships going to the base will become clear after the preparation of a report based on an initial assessment at the base," Turkey's Hurriyet newspaper reported.

Keeping in mind that Turkey and Qatar signed a defense agreement in 2014, which obligates Ankara to aid the Gulf monarchy in case of an attack, the troop deployment should be seen as an unambiguous message to everyone involved.

An opportunity for Iran

Closing Qatar's borders, expelling its nationals and halting all sea and air traffic, are meant to force Doha to capitulate in the shortest period of time possible.

Even without the threat of military force, the damage is grave.

Qatar's national carrier has already taken a hit - no longer able to fly to major Gulf cities while flights to other destinations are forced to take detours because it has been barred from large areas of airspace.

Meanwhile, about 40% of Qatar's food comes in through its land border with Saudi Arabia - which has been closed. In the ensuing panic, people rushed to stock up on supplies.

There are also major construction projects underway across the kingdom - not least eight stadiums for FIFA's 2022 World Cup. The Saudi border closure could affect the supply of materials and delay projects.

But Doha still has options.

In addition to the support from Ankara, the Qataris can also count on assistance from Tehran.

Iranian airspace has already become the alternative route for the Qataris while any shortages in Doha can be easily solved with imports from Iran.

For the Iranians, this is an opportunity to inflict a mortal blow on the GCC. A stronger relationship between Tehran and Doha would seriously undercut all blueprints in Washington and Riyadh to confront Iran through the use of hostile Arab monarchies.

Moreover, broader cooperation with Iran could lead to Qatar withdrawing from the Syrian conflict.

For Saudi Arabia, the stakes couldn't be higher and if economic pressure doesn't get Doha to yield, Riyadh is likely to resort to other means.

"Coups are actually a fairly traditional way to change government in Qatar; there is always another Al-Thani cousin who can be put in place ... And given that Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman has no compunction about destroying Yemen for example, I don't rule it out entirely that there could be a coup in Qatar or even some overt Saudi intervention," says former US diplomat, Jim Jatras.

Whatever the outcome of the current crisis, the unity of the GCC has been seriously jeopardized and the damage done to the organization is likely irreparable.

Source: Al-Ahed news

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