Greed for Power and Foreign Interference: What Is Happening in Sudan?

By Ali Madi

The fighting in Sudan shattered the relative calm that engulfed the region following the recent Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. At a time when the African state and one of the world’s largest agricultural powerhouses appeared to be on the verge of political solutions, the sound of cannon fire marked the start of bloody clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The dimensions of the current crisis are complex and go beyond the internal conflict between yesterday's friends and today's enemies in which the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Lieutenant General Muhamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti) is fighting for power and attempting to exclude the Chairperson of the Sovereign Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

External actors, including Gulf states, are tampering with the stability of this country, which has a great deal of strategic importance and is home to both natural and food resources.

Despite the ferocity of the battles, the high death toll, and the extensive collateral damage, the balance of power on the ground favors the Sudanese army. That said, the armed forces need more time to conclude the battle, which may start with the arrest of Hemedti, who lost significant support among the elements he mobilized in his attempt to seize power.               

However, the biggest loser is the Sudanese people, who have been deprived of any semblance of stability for years amid the decimated infrastructure, and the very foundations of the country.

This only serves the enemies of Sudan, who do not want to see stability and calm in the region that would enable development and prosperity.

A former researcher at the Higher Academy for Strategic and Security Studies in Sudan, Major General Badr al-Din Abd al-Hakam, explains that "military operations began two days ago. The key dispute centers on merging the Rapid Support Forces with the army, and Hemedti was lured by the Gulf and foreign countries to seize power, especially since he has the desire to do so.”

He claims that Hemedti had plotted a coup in July 2022 and participated in a meeting in a Gulf state, which was followed by assassination attempts on the Chief of Staff Major General Khafashi and Al-Burhan. Information collected by security and intelligence agencies points the finger of blame at Hemedti’s coup plot.

"Although the Sudanese Armed Forces overlooked these endeavors to make way for a political process, Hemedti repeated his attempts,” Abd al-Hakam said. “The last time he gathered a large number of his forces – in agreement with the communist and leftist forces present in Khartoum (which are parties that have no weight on the political scene) and with the support of some Arab countries and the UN delegate Volker [Perthes] – and tried to take a big step, and his move was thwarted on Thursday by the armed forces. So, he began to mobilize thousands of his forces under the pretext of going to Yemen, and he entered Khartoum. The majority of his forces are from the Arab tribes, and they are now wandering the streets after being beaten by the army. He thought the operation would be a walk in the park, and he would take control of the capital.”

According to Abd al-Hakam, "Hemedti did not undertake logistical preparations for his forces, and these vehicles are now in the streets with no fighters and no fuel, and the majority of his fighters have taken refuge among civilians and in mosques because no support is reaching them. They are asking for civilian clothes to surrender themselves because they are not residents of the capital and do not know its alleys. The members of the Rapid Support Forces are now among the dead, captives, or fugitives.”

The operations

Abd al-Hakam outlines the list of key operations:

- In Omdurman, the battle was decided in two major camps, Saliha and Karari, and included a high death toll.

- Inside Khartoum, the Taiba camp was destroyed, in addition to the destruction of the Rapid Support Forces’ command and control facility in the center of Khartoum. The leaders fled the facility after it was levelled to the ground. As for the Tabouj and Zuba camps, they are in the hands of the armed forces.

Attempt to smuggle Hemedti out

Abd al-Hakam explains that some security companies are seeking to smuggle Hemedti out of the country after noticing a rush to an airport by vehicles belonging to Rapid Support Forces. However, the plan was thwarted, and Hemedti's brother, who is one of the masterminds of this affair, was arrested.

Abd al-Hakam explains that many of these developments have an external dimension involving Arab countries amid attempts to integrate the Rapid Support Forces into the army.

This cannot happen because they are militias that exploit the country's resources by smuggling gold out of Sudan. They have tons of gold in their possession, and also exploit agricultural land.

Abd al-Hakam notes that these very same Arab countries had a role in sabotaging Libya, Syria, and Iraq, and it is likely that the military will name the countries that intervened once the battle is concluded.

Abd al-Hakam points out that the Sudanese Armed Forces have seized control over most of the sites and camps outside the capital, and the battles were resolved. The Air Force, including warplanes and drones, will have the final word.

Abd al-Hakam believes attempts to capture the airport were aimed at smuggling Hemedti out of the country, especially since elements of the Wagner Group were reportedly on the ground. Hemedti’s body double, named Abd al-Rahman Badr, was arrested. He confessed about the countries and organizations supporting the Rapid Support Forces, referring to the burning of a Gulf plane that came to the airport, possibly intending to smuggle him out of the country.

Furthermore, Abd al-Hakam alleges that Hemedti is now being tracked by the Sudanese Special Forces and was located in an embassy of a country that supported him. He had to relocated after one of his phone conversations was recorded and later leaked.

He is now in a neighborhood in Khartoum, east of the airport. When he is arrested, the operation will end, especially since the number of people fighting for him fell to just a few thousand from the initial 60,000 to 70,000.

The coming hours are crucial

Abd al-Hakam expects the coming hours to be decisive. He claims the armed forces are committed to a political process. But what is unfortunate is that some forces and parties that have no weight and are supported by a Gulf state are the ones that tempted Hemedti to rebel and try to seize power.

Regarding Hemedti's situation, Abd al-Hakam said he “moves from one house to another, especially since he is married to four women. Every place he goes to is surrounded by dozens of vehicles, but the armed forces do not bomb his position due to the possible presence of families and civilians."

According to Abd al-Hakam, Hemedti is the suspicious type, and he is constantly moving around under close protection and a large number of armored vehicles.