‘Israeli’ Analysis: Hezbollah SG Raises the Bet Value
By Al-Ahed News
‘Israel’ Hayom military affairs expert Lilach Shoval described the launching of 34 rockets from South Lebanon to the Western Galilee yesterday afternoon is undoubtedly the most dangerous security incident that took place in this sector since July 2006 War, considering the immediate explanation of the rocket launching is that of a Palestinian response to the unfolding events in the Aqsa Mosque and part of sympathy after the violations committed against the holy site.
“In the northern arena, the situation is more complicated,” Shoval said, adding that Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah threatened to respond to any ‘Israeli’ action on the Lebanese territories, with his warning supported by tens of thousands of rockets that are directed at ‘Israel.’
According to the ‘Israeli’ expert, Hezbollah SG’s threats to answer any ‘Israeli’ action against Lebanon or Lebanese citizens have pushed Tel Aviv for several months to curb its action repeatedly. “Hence, among the several incidents, ‘Israel’ didn’t answer the launching of unmanned drones towards the ‘Karish’ Field some months ago, and preferred apparently an indirect action the like of the attacks on Syria, in response to the latest incident in ‘Megiddo.’
Additionally, ‘Israel’s’ policies of containing and indirect response have majorly boosted [Sayyed] Nasrallah’s self-esteem, in which he raised the value of his bet. This was added to the eroding ‘Israeli’ deterrence, especially in wake of the internal tension caused by Benjamin Netanyahu government’s attempts to pass the so-called ‘judicial reforms’, which were faced by massive protests as well as tension between Washington and Tel Aviv, according to Shoval.
“From now on, ‘Israel’ cannot continue the policy of containment and self-restraint, since launching 34 rockets makes a dramatic shift in the situation,” the expert said. Shoval also referred to the security discussions within the enemy’s entity to study the way of responding, first on the level of the Army and Shabak, then with the war minister, until Netanyahu ordered the cabined to convene although the ‘Israeli’ officials made their best in the past months to avoid responding through strikes in Lebanon. This was because they were aware that any ‘Israeli’ action in Lebanon will lead to a Hezbollah reaction. In this respect, Shoval underlined how difficult it is to see ‘Israel’ succeed this time in evading a military response in Lebanon.
“The main dilemma for the decisionmakers is how to reduce, as much as possible, the chance of an inclusive escalation of the situation,” Shoval said, pointing, however, to that despite the ‘Israeli’ desire to limit the response with the Palestinians, it is important to remind that in the past time the ‘Israeli’ military responded to the Palestinian source of launching from Lebanon in August 2021, Hezbollah responded by launching 19 rockets towards the occupied Shebaa Farms.
She further concluded that “the main goals of the ‘Israeli’ security establishment is to calm the situation majorly in al-Quds, and respond in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon without going to a war. However, according to Shoval, it is very hard to expect the dynamism of the events in Lebanon, and it is definite that we might find ourselves engaged in several fighting days, or even more.
