Below the Limit of All-out Confrontation: “Israel” Fears The Escalation

By Yehya Dbouk, Al-Akhbar Newpaper

There seems to be nothing that can prevent the escalation of the situation in the occupied territories, which appears to be heading towards an all-out confrontation with the Gaza Strip.

The next two weeks are full of Jewish religious occasions, during which the settlers practice their rituals in a way that violates the  sanctity of the Al-Aqsa Compound. This will require a response from the residents of Al-Quds and from other regions, including the 1948 occupied territories.

However, the escalation, as shown by the confrontations last Friday, does not seem inevitable at this time. The relevant parties, i.e., the “Israeli” occupation forces and the Palestinian factions, are not interested in an inclusive escalation, which is confirmed by the enemy through its positions, practical performance, and messages from "under the table" through its mediators. Similarly with the resistance factions, although they have their finger on the trigger in Gaza.

When it comes to a general scene, it’s important to note the following:

- Tel Aviv fears, based on its intelligence assessments, that the escalation in the confrontations will include the various Palestinian arenas, leading to a military confrontation with the Gaza Strip. These are premises that have always been on the “Israeli” assessment table, but they were not given priority because the "security situation is under control", which prevents the confrontations from turning into an inclusive escalation. 

The enemy received practical assurances about the possibility of it rolling into an all-out confrontation last year, which led to a broad escalation with the Gaza Strip that lasted 11 days, during which “Israel” suffered losses. However, the confrontation inside the Green Line is the first of its kind in two decades. At the same time, the “Israelis” do not seem interested and are forbidden to change course in Al-Aqsa and the occupied territories because this time the Palestinians and the resistance factions read “Israel’s” position well and are working to take advantage of opportunities, as long as “Israel” restrains itself from engaging in a deliberate escalation. 

This leads to the establishment of new equations and the prevention of other changes related to the status quo in Al-Quds, as Tel Aviv exploits its provisions [the status quo] with the aim of expanding and strengthening its control over Al-Quds and the Al-Aqsa Compound.

Hence, “Israel” is moving between the motive to curb confrontations and escalations and enabling the Palestinians to fulfill achievements that prevent the occupation from moving forward with “manifestations of sovereignty” over the Al-Aqsa Compound.

- The scenes broadcast during the confrontations and their aftermath, inside and outside the Compound – the cruelest of them being the storming and desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque by the “Israeli” security forces – do not change the premises, its controls, and limits, whether for the occupier or for the Palestinians. Rather, it is emphasized in many ways. As it turned out, “Israel” activated all its tools of repression, without causing casualties among the defenders of the Al-Aqsa Compound, knowing in advance that bloodshed in the Compound would change the priorities of other arenas.

- The confrontations in Al-Quds and other occupied areas do not end the phenomenon of unilateral operations inside “Israel”, but rather increase their motivation. The confrontations and their causes are now being considered by the decision makers in Tel Aviv, as is the case with the individual operations inside the Green Line, which further complicates and confuses the position of the occupation. Against this background, “Israeli” intelligence estimates point to two weeks full of escalation factors and the possibilities of rolling toward higher levels of confrontations than what occupied Palestine witnessed last Friday, including raising the level of incentive to launch unilateral operations.

- The position of the Palestinian Authority was interesting – it issued a statement asking “Israel” not to seek a temporal and spatial division of the Al-Aqsa Compound. This statement is useless and is not compatible with the magnitude and level of attacks in the Al-Aqsa Compound. It was more appropriate for the PA, if it wanted to be an influential factor in curbing Tel Aviv's drive and in increasing the factors that curbed it, to freeze its security function if it was unable or wanted to change its identity and function.

- What is interesting in the context of the confrontations is that a few hours after the attack on the Al-Aqsa Compound and the broadcast scenes of the destruction caused by the “Israeli” security services inside Al-Aqsa, the “Israeli” President organized an Iftar gathering with the ambassadors of Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Turkey and other politicians representing the regimes that normalized ties with Tel Aviv. This shameful scene shows the extent of their subordination. Abu Dhabi's decision for its planes to participate in the air show that “Israel” holds every year on the occasion of its “rise” is also interesting.