Tourism Collapse from COVID-19 Could Cost the Global Economy More Than $4 Trillion

By Staff, Agencies

The collapse of international tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a loss of more than $4 trillion in global GDP over the years 2020 and 2021, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development [UNCTAD] published Wednesday.

The report was presented jointly with the United Nations World Tourism Organization [UNWTO].

International tourism and the sectors that depend on it suffered an estimated loss of $2.4 trillion in 2020 due to the direct and indirect impacts of a sharp drop in international tourist arrivals.

A similar loss could be recorded this year again, warns the report, which specifies that the resumption of tourism will largely depend on the massive distribution of vaccines against COVID-19 on a global scale.

"The world needs a global vaccination effort that will protect workers, mitigate social damage and make strategic decisions about tourism, taking into account potential structural changes," said Isabelle Durant, acting secretary general of UNCTAD.

As vaccination rates are uneven, with less than 1 percent of the population vaccinated in some countries and more than 60 percent elsewhere, the report notes that tourist losses are greater in developing countries.

Thus, three more or less pessimistic scenarios are presented for the year 2021, the most optimistic evoking a reduction in tourist arrivals of only 63 percent on average.

According to the UNWTO, industry experts do not expect to return to usual crowds before 2023, "or even later, the main obstacles being restrictions on travel, the slow containment of the virus, weak traveler confidence and an unfavorable economic environment.