Is “Israel” Ignoring the Biggest Strategic Threat It Faces?

By Staff, Agencies

The “Israeli” entity is using the last days of US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in office to intensify its attacks on Syria. But the main strategic threat facing the “Israeli” entity is not located in Syria, but in Lebanon, and as it stands, “Israel” is avoiding dealing with it.

The frequent attacks attributed to the “Israeli” entity in Syria haven't stopped Hezbollah's efforts to establish an independent capability of producing and manufacturing accurate missiles on Lebanese territory.

Several estimations indicate that the Lebanese resistance organization has managed to accumulate a few hundred mid to long range accurate missiles by now, "Israeli" media reported.

The “Israeli” entity’s reluctance to openly attack these sites is understandable. In 2012 a deterrence equation was put in place, according to which Hezbollah will respond over any “Israeli” attack on Lebanese territory. Such an exchange of blows can quickly lead to an all-out confrontation, even if both sides are really not interested in one.

Furthermore, the “Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] defined the threat of accurate missiles from Lebanon as a strategic threat on the “Israeli” entity. When Hezbollah is able to make it rain missiles on the Kirya in Tel Aviv – not somewhere around it, between Kaplan Street and King Shaul Avenue, but exactly on the IOF’s headquarters located at the heart of the base – that would be a capability that can shut down complete strategic arrays crucial to the entity.

Just like the boiling frog fable that tells the story of a frog slowly boiling in a pot of water, “Israelis” too tell themselves that the water is pretty warm but are still reasonably pleasant and jumping out can wait. The IOF prides itself on its accurate intelligence of Lebanon, so one can assume that it knows exactly what the water temperature is at any giving point. Today, as the entity nears the boiling point, “Israelis” must define and explicitly determine the temperature that they will no longer be able to tolerate.

This fable is not an attempt to reduce the complexity of the dilemma or to present it as superficial. Traditionally, the “Israeli” entity has avoided going to war. This is especially true when discussing a war on the entity’s northern front, which has the potential to put “Israelis” through a painful experience that it hasn't gone through. But there are points when the threat becomes intolerable. 

In the years that followed the retreat from southern Lebanon, the IOF watched as Hezbollah arm itself. In 2006, those missiles dropped on the entity in the thousands, and took “Israelis” by surprise. Hezbollah then owned about 14,000 rockets. Today, based on different estimates, Hezbollah has about 70,000 rockets and missiles.

In light of everything that is happening in Lebanon, a different, responsible leadership – political and military-wise – will be required to define our red line that will force us to take action in the upcoming year.