Coronavirus Could Kill 81k in US, May Not Subside Until June

By Staff, Agencies

The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June, a data analysis done by University of Washington School of Medicine suggested.

The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, the analysis added.

Using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, the analysis predicts that the number of US deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000.

The variance is due in part to disparate rates of the spread of the virus in different regions, which experts are still struggling to explain, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the study.

The duration of the virus means there may be a need for social distancing measures for longer than initially expected, although the country may eventually be able to relax restrictions if it can more effectively test and quarantine the sick, Murray said.

The analysis also highlights the strain that will be placed on hospitals. At the epidemic’s peak, sick patients could exceed the number of available hospital beds by 64,000 and could require the use of around 20,000 ventilators. Ventilators are already running short in hard-hit places like New York City.

The United States now has the highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the world, according to media reports.