Trump is Foolishly Playing with American Blood
Hossam Matar
Martyr Qassem Soleimani was a symbol of an axis. The immunity he enjoyed was not related to security. Rather it was a political immunity. In other words, Major General Soleimani was not immune because of security measures but because of the rules of deterrence. As such, the Americans have made a conscious decision to violate these established rules.
Soleimani frequently moved from one frontline to another while playing political, military, and sometimes social roles. Hence, the question is why did the Americans decide to breach the rules of deterrence at this particular time?
The decision to carry out the operation points to a shift in the American approach. The Americans surely realize that there is a price to be paid. So why did they now dare to accept to pay that price for the assassination of Hajj Qassem Soleimani? There are two logical reasons and another illogical one.
The first reason or variable is related to the Aramco attack. The Americans and the “Israelis” consider that attack a major shift in the regional balance of power, and this is very accurate. The type and style of attack as well as the target chosen led to a major shift in the rules of engagement and the balance of power in the region. This operation set the stage for what begun to unfold today. Following the Aramco attack, the Americans and the “Israelis” discovered that Iranian power, will and boldness exceeded their expectations. This realization terrified them.
In this context, it is wise to refer to documented “Israeli” horrors about Iranian missile capabilities. The enemy’s chief of staff, Aviv Kochavi, said a few days ago that Iranian missile manufacturing surpasses all security industries in "Israel". Thus, the “Israelis” concluded that since the Iranians possess such missile capabilities, they have the ability to bomb "Israel" from any part of the Middle East. Then, talk about Iraq intensified. They felt that the most dangerous piece of the puzzle is Iraq. From Iraq, the Iranians could effectively bomb "Israel" with a large quantity of accurate missiles.
A stunning variable began to emerge. The Americans realized that the maximum pressure campaign is not working and that the Iranians are building up power. Thus, a shift in the balance of regional powers may occur. In addition, there is increasing boldness from the Iranians, which is the opposite result of what Trump had hoped for. Trump believed that pressure on Iran would push the Iranians to sit at the negotiating table and make concessions. In the eyes of the Americans, this transformation is beginning to be reflected in Iraq itself, which is the most important arena for the Americans.
The second variable is “Israel”. The “Israelis” also began talking about the intertwining of arenas. Iraq is not one of the Arab countries surrounding Palestine. However, because of these missile capabilities Iraq could become a platform for launching missile attacks towards "Israel" due to the combined presence of the Hashd al-Shaabi and Iranian technology. Here the understanding between the “Israelis” and the Americans evolved and roles and arenas were divided. In other words, “Israeli” attacks in Iraq may have taken place, at some point, without American consent. The attacks were part of “Israeli” pressure telling the Americans ‘either you put the Iranians in line in Iraq or we, the “Israelis”, will.’
Last month, the US Chief of Staff visited the “Israeli” entity. Avichay Adraee said that this visit was the first of many from the various departments of the US army. In other words, there has been intensified US-“Israeli” military coordination in the past two months that centered on Iran. It seems that there is an allocation of roles; "Israel" will take on Iran in Syria, while the US will take on Tehran in the Iranian arena.
Hence, a part of the assassination of Hajj Qassem Soleimani largely reflects “Israeli” interests. It is a new American adventure and one that toys with American blood for the sake of “Israel’s” interests. This is a success for the “Israelis”. Even Presidents Barack Obama and George Bush did not have such an impulse toward “Israeli” interests. However, the “Israelis” managed to drag Trump towards what they wanted because of their deep influence within this American administration.
The third illogical variable is Donald Trump’s personality. If the American establishment and the Pentagon in particular did not want the strike, it could have manipulated Trump and bypassed it. However, it was clear that there was momentum from the institution telling Trump to head in that direction. And Trump is ready because of his irrationality, recklessness and arrogance, pressure from inside the country and the help he aspires to get from “Israeli” lobbies and from some Gulf countries for his electoral campaign. In addition to his irrationality and obsession with power, Trump could not bear the targeting of an American base in Iraq that killed a US contractor and the attack on the embassy in Baghdad. So, he opted for the strike.
But Trump is too foolish to understand the Iranians or Qassem Soleimani. Hours after the assassination, he tweeted that Iran had not won a previous war but only won negotiations. Trump thought that after such a strike he could sit down to negotiate with Iran. This indicates that he is a man who is unaware of the folly he committed. This confusion has now been translated through the messages sent to the Iranians through the Swiss.
The Americans made their decision to escalate the situation in the Iraqi arena. The Trump administration waited for a suitable opportunity to highlight this path. But they were also waiting for an event that would directly affect the American public in order to be able to justify any potential American casualties as say they did what we did to defend US interests rather than Aramco or others.
Therefore, what happened in Iraq, in the embassy and the killing of an American in Kirkuk, was used by the administration as an excuse to alter the balance in Iraq. In this context, Trump was offered a range of options, one of which was Major General Qassim Soleimani. In the National Security Council, Trump was surprised by his chosen option. Accordingly, Trump cared about the image that resulted from the operation. He did not care about its implications. Here, he was unaware of what he was venturing into.
