Ynet: Hezbollah SG – The Worldly-Wise Enemy

Translated by Staff, By Yossi Yehoshua – Ynet Military Analyst

The Secretary General of Hezbollah [His Eminence Sayyed] Hassan Nasrallah, vowed to respond to two attacks: the first, that "Israel" claimed responsibility for which targeted a group of explosive rigged drones in the Golan Heights; and the second was an armed drone attack in Beirut’s southern suburb attributed to Tel Aviv, which – according to him, was aimed at a "target" and not against a media center.

It is possible to assume that if “Israel” has already carried out the second attack in the heart of Beirut – the first attack being 13 years ago inside Lebanese territory – then, this is not about a futile goal but a strategic one, which seems to be worth the risk of changing a policy that spares Lebanese territory the direct fighting. One of the possibilities raised was a precision missile factory.

Currently, troops have not been reinforced, but in recent days, Iron Dome batteries had been deployed on several targets. In "Israel", officials were trying to get into [Sayyed] Nasrallah’s head and estimate the expected response. All sides believe that Hezbollah's secretary-general is not a liar: if he promises a response, he will surely fulfill – the question however, is how and when, that response will be.

The prevailing hypothesis is that Hezbollah will seek a military target in the north, similar to that of January 2015, in which two soldiers of the Givati brigade were killed in the Shebaa Farms.

The “Israeli” army’s new challenge is to maintain a level of readiness and preparedness for a period of time without producing targets available to Hezbollah, as it has in the past.

[Sayyed] Nasrallah takes into account that an exceptional response on his part could lead to a much more severe “Israeli” response, on the understanding that there is enough "brave men" in Tel Aviv to change the equation – otherwise they would not, at least according to his claim, attack Beirut.

In addition, [Sayyed] Nasrallah is committed to the Lebanese government and is not interested in harming its ailing economy, especially the tourism sector, which is a major source of livelihood for many Lebanese. [Sayyed] Nasrallah also understands that Netanyahu, who is facing an upcoming election, may retaliate with a force he does not appreciate its strength, as in the recent attack.

Regarding the “Israeli” drones that allegedly attacked Beirut’s southern suburb, [Sayyed] Nasrallah explained that there is a clear policy under which he would not allow aerial activities, and that his group members might try to shoot down “Israeli” drones constantly collecting intelligence information in Lebanon. He could also try to send a drone into “Israeli” airspace as a retaliation.

This battle of wits between “Israel” and Hezbollah [via Iran and Syria] requires nerves of steel and cold blood. Tel Aviv must prepare for every scenario – in addition to a scenario that does not seem to have crossed [Sayyed] Nasrallah's mind and plans. It is forbidden to forget the lessons of 2006, when Hezbollah succeeded in surprising the “Israeli” army several times. It is true that “Israeli” intelligence capability has improved, but one thing has not changed: [Sayyed] Nasrallah was and remains a worldly-wise enemy.