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Summer of Victories 2019


Backing Brexit Will Cost Labor More Votes than Iraq War - Poll

folder_openUnited Kingdom access_time6 months ago
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By Staff, Agencies

ITV News and the Guardian reported that the confidential document was sent to pro-Corbyn pressure group Momentum by the TSSA union, and has been circulating among Shadow Cabinet ministers.

It warned Labor that backing Brexit will cost the party 45 seats at a snap election, compared with 11 for opposing Britain's departure.

"There can be no disguising the sense of disappointment and disillusionment with Labor if it fails to oppose Brexit and there is every indication that it will be far more damaging to the party’s electoral fortunes than the Iraq war," it said.

“Labor would especially lose the support of people below the age of 35, which could make this issue comparable to the impact the tuition fees and involvement in the coalition had on Lib Dem support.”

The party would also risk losing five of its seven MPs in Remain-supporting Scotland if it supports Brexit, the study said.

Amid calls for Corbyn to back a second referendum, the poll claims that three-quarters of Labor voters would vote to 'Remain' if one were called.

It also suggested that any new centrist party vowing to oppose Brexit could hoover up Labor voters, with 17% of Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 supporters saying they would be "very likely" to back a new party that came out against Britain's EU exit.

"Even if we accept that most Labor voters would not desert the party for a new centrist party, anger at Brexit means that some will," the report said.

The findings came as Corbyn wrote to Prime Minister Theresa May setting out the terms under which Labor could back her Brexit agreement.

But, according to the study, four-fifths of Labor’s supporters believe May's deal will hurt the British economy.

Meanwhile 91.4% do not trust her to deliver a Brexit that will be good for people like them.

The report warns: "If there is an election in 2019, Labor will get a lower share of the vote in every seat in the country if it has a pro-Brexit policy than if it has an anti-Brexit position.”

The new poll was quickly seized on by anti-Brexit campaigners, who urged Labor to swing behind a second referendum.