No Script

Please Wait...

Al-Ahed Telegram

Syria Ceasefire

Syria Ceasefire
folder_openVoices access_time7 years ago
starAdd to favorites

Darko Lazar

The third ceasefire agreement of 2016 went into effect across Syria just hours before the New Year. But unlike its predecessors, the latest truce signals a real change on the ground, as its architects - Russia, Iran and Turkey - alter the geopolitical realities in the Middle East, sidelining the United States.

Syria Ceasefire

The ceasefire confirms assessments by international military and geopolitical analysts, who predicted that a victory for President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo would mark a key turning point in the Syrian conflict, serving as a catalyst toward an accelerated final solution.

Moreover, the agreement hammered out by the new troika further highlights Ankara's integration in the Syria-Iraq-Iran-Russia alliance, spearheading the battle against US-backed regional terrorism.

Astana to replace Geneva

The main features of this Syria truce include the abandonment of the painfully time-consuming and fruitless negotiations involving Moscow's western ‘partners', which produced two failed ceasefires last year.

According to former US diplomat James Jatras, "the exclusion of the Obama administration was a necessary precondition for any kind of viable ceasefire to take shape."

In addition, Moscow and Ankara have successfully separated the so-called ‘moderate opposition' from the terrorist elements in Syria, namely Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and Daesh [Arabic acronym for "ISIS" / "ISIL"].

This is important because it lays the groundwork for negotiations slated for later this month in Kazakhstan's capital Astana, effectively replacing the discredited and outdated talks in Geneva.

"Lets be clear, some of these groups being named Jabhat al Islamia, Jaish al Mujahideen, and especially Ahrar al-Sham; these are terrorists as well. But at some point you are going to have to deal with those people. The fact that Turkey has separated itself from American policy... and they are willing to work with the Russians and the Iranians toward a settlement, could lead to something," Jatras opined.

Room for optimism

The recent shift in the regional balance of power, tilting in favor of the Damascus government, resulted in the creation of new political alliances, paving the way for possible diplomatic breakthroughs on several key fronts.

Both the extent and timeframe of these breakthroughs will depend in part on US President-elect Donald Trump, who appears to be more focused on the destruction of Daesh in Syria than ousting al Assad, and whose rhetoric suggests he is more interested in working with the Russians than challenging them.

These new realities do not spell a very bright future for the militant groups in Syria or their remaining backers in the Gulf. Without being able to rely on US military muscle or Turkey's infrastructure Saudi Arabia and Qatar are going to have a tough time propping up their assets in Syria.

According to Professor Joshua Landis at the University of Oklahoma, "this is really not about the ceasefire holding; it's about Turkey being involved with Russia and Iran and it is essentially letting the rebels know that a new page has been turned, that Turkey cannot keep its door open to the rebels and that they are going to have to fend for themselves."

As Riyadh sinks deeper into the Yemen quagmire, Doha appears to be carving out its own plans for the future, involving a cozy relationship with both Ankara and Moscow.

In April of last year, Turkey deployed soldiers to a new military base in Qatar as part of a security agreement between the two countries. Doha is also heavily reliant on Turkey when it comes to its support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Meanwhile, Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, along with commodity trader Glencore Plc, bought a USD 11 billion stake in Russia's state-controlled oil giant, PAO Rosneft. The deal reached in December of last year marked a major triumph for Russia's President Vladimir Putin over western-imposed sanctions.

As such the Saudis and the neocons in Washington and Brussels are faced with increasingly limited room to maneuver. For its part, Riyadh has a choice - either except an invitation to Astana and participate in some form of talks, or continue to rely on unrealistic military options, which are certain to lead to the loss of Idlib and the complete destruction of its armed factions in Syria.

The news out of Syria is too positive for some

Of course, one should not be naïve about the power and influence that the enemies of Syria still wield, or their ability to sabotage diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving regional conflicts.

A number of militant groups have already threatened to freeze negotiations over their participation in the upcoming peace talks, citing violations of the ceasefire agreement.

Shortly after the truce went into effect, Istanbul was rocked by another deadly terrorist attack, which left 39 people dead while the Obama administration announced new sanctions against the Kremlin in response to alleged Russian hacking.

Kamal Alam with the London-based Royal United Services Institute believes that "There could be a link."

"They want to distract from the good news in Syria by putting the sanctions on the Russians. It's obviously very unfortunate, especially as there is a new US president coming in," Alam said.

There are still a number of unknowns in Syria. To what degree Trump is able or willing to rein in private armies and intelligence agencies, susceptible to corporate interference is still an open question. And then there is the question of the Kurds. A long-term relationship between Ankara and Moscow also depends on the Kremlin's ability to insure that no Kurdish state springs up on Turkey's border.

Source: Al-Ahed News

Comments

Breaking news