The Saudi Storm of Madness...will the Government be Toppled?

Mohammad Hamiyah

Following the Saudi decision to cancel the four billion (dollar) donation, which was allocated to the army and security forces, Interior Minister Nohad Machnouq described the decision as the "first storm", warning that "that which is greater is coming".

"That which is greater", of which Machnouq spoke about, began to be translated immediately by the Saudis, with escalatory measures against Lebanon appearing like a declaration of war. Not only did the "Kingdom of Goodness" stop the already frozen donations for various reasons, but it also asked all Saudi citizens not to travel to Lebanon and for its citizens to leave it. Other Gulf states that rotate around the Saudi sphere (of influence), such as the Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, did not take long to take the same action.

What was feared by many people has begun to occur, as we see prominent Lebanese workers in the Kingdom return back to their homeland. This is what was announced yesterday by the Head of the Development of Saudi-Lebanese Economic Relations Commission, Elie Rizk, that some 90 Lebanese citizens from various affiliations and sects were informed that their services were no longer needed.

After these arbitrary measures, the following question is posed: what next, and where to for the Saudi storm of madness against Lebanon? Will it resort to withdrawing its ambassador and severing diplomatic ties with it, and will the government be toppled?

Informed sources warned of a trend by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to (impose) economic and fiscal pressure on Lebanon, such as through more painful measures for the Lebanese economy, like the withdrawal of financial deposits placed in the central bank, and the transfer of investments from Lebanon, followed by the severing of diplomatic relations, so as to blockade the government and embarrass it with a decisive financial, diplomatic blow. (This blow) would be enough to lead to its resignation, especially since Saudi Arabia bore direct responsibility for the abolition of government grants because of its official position in the Arab League.

The sources explain to "al-Binaa" that the actions of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to such an extent will create problems of financial and economic chaos in Lebanon, which already suffers from many problems, most notably the waste crisis, and therefore will explode social crises and raise up the street in the face of the government, which also faces the decision of US banking sanctions against Lebanese whom the United States accuses of being close to Hizbullah. This would put Prime Minister Tammam Salam before two choices: either face the crisis and the anger of the street and the anger of the ministers of the Future Movement and its allies, or throw in its resignation.

Ministerial sources ruled out Salam resorting to the resignation option despite all the difficult circumstances, and they emphasize to "al-Binaa" that "if there was an intention to overthrow the government, it would have resigned after its meeting last Monday because of disagreement on the wording of the statement, which according to the sources, came in favour of Hizbullah more than the Future Movement, despite the reservation of Machnouq, .

The northern, Future Movement MP explains in an interview with "al-Binaa", that there is real concern among Saad Hariri and the Future Movement regarding the whole country, not just the government, "so everyone is making efforts such that the government does not fall".
The northern MP stresses that "Hariri agreed on the wording of the government statement, although it does not meet the aspirations of the Lebanese people, the Future Movement, Saudi Arabia, because Hariri does not want to overthrow the government, and his disagreement with Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi was over this very topic, security risks caused by this move or that is being kept in mind by the March 8 and March 14 groups".

The MP from the Future Movement holds that "Hariri is aware that both the House Speaker Nabih Berri and MP Walid Jumblatt play a major role as a safety valve for the government, for security, and for stability". He reveals the commitment of the "Future Movement" and Hariri in "not heading towards any step without coordinating with Berri, who advised Hariri and his team against the step of resigning from the government at the present time".

The MP from the north warns that "if the country suffers a security shakeup, then the fear is that it would quickly enter the burning volcano in the region, and thus become a part of the "Basel" region, which is not known yet whether it will go towards partition or a regional war".

If the said MP does not deny the holding on of Saudi Arabia to the Taif Agreement, he nevertheless comments on the calls by some that Saudi Arabia does not dare to play with security in Lebanon in order not to be drawn into internal dissension that would topple the Taif Agreement in any future settlement, saying: "The Taif is Lebanese and not Saudi, and (it is) in the interest of Lebanon and not a special privilege by the Saudis for the Sunnis, rather, it came in order to end the first Lebanese war, and on this basis Hariri holds on to the nomination of Minister Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency, because he is one of the believers in Taif".

Many question marks have been raised regarding the sudden Saudi position towards Lebanon. For example, why does Saudi Arabia need a supportive Lebanese stance in the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Work, amidst the support of all states for it? What would a negative or positive stance towards the Kingdom change, the latter of which is locked in fierce, fateful wars on several fronts in the region?

An irony that must be mentioned is that in the midst of the March 14's campaigns on the regime in Syria ever since the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and up until today, (campaigns) which were harsher than the positions of Hizbullah toward Saudi Arabia, Syria did not take positions and actions which have been taken - and are being taken - by Saudi Arabia today against Lebanon. (Keeping in mind) the difference that what Syria has provided Lebanon outweighs by several times that which March 14 says Saudi Arabia has provided Lebanon.

Source: As-Safir, Translated and Edited by website team