The Story behind ’Unexpected Landing’ of Geagea in Rabieh

Imad Marmal - Assafir newspaper

Thirty years after gory conflicts over choices, power, and alliances, Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea decided to rehabilitate their strained relationship, and move it out of the "prison" of the past overloaded with animosity and blood; the coming days and experiences shall reveal whether their "détente" is provisional or permanent.

While Rabieh meeting resulted into a "declaration of intents" which included a display of agreed headlines, stake is within the implicit intentions, haunted by the demons of details and calculations.

It was clear that the text of the declaration, read out by lawmaker Ibrahim Kanaan and Melhem Riachi, relied on critical balances in the form and the content, whereas it wasn't impossible to consider the Lebanese Forces in some points and the Free Patriotic Movement in others, even though the milieus of Aoun's allies considered that the document resembled more the rhetoric of the FPM.

Perhaps, the declaration looked, in some of its aspects, like a revolving door, allowing both sides to enter and exit the text easily, noting that the biggest challenge is their ability to commit to one explanation of the announced intentions.
As to the timing, the meeting suggests that the Christian pair seeks to retake the initiative and to move from reactions to actions, in tandem with a sharp disagreement over the appointment of military and security chiefs, the endorsement of urgent drafts, and the visit of Prime Minister Tammam Salam to Saudi Arabia.

It is also clear that the challenges and dangers with Christians in Lebanon and the East have become so stalking that neither Aoun nor Geagea could turn their shoulder to them, or carry on facing them the old way.
Besides, both men took note of the significant results of surveys on their dialogue, which showed that 97% of the surveyed people refused that the two remain at loggerheads. Therefore, Aoun and Geagea realized that their failure to bridge the gap would, at least, fuel a tremendous grudge against them among the concerned Christians.

Before all that, the two poles felt that keeping on the gap between them only meant that they would remain the weakest in the internal equation and consensual balances, while other communities on other scenes would enjoy prerogatives. Moreover, they must not think that he "declaration of intents" is tantamount to a political alliance; their ambition is that this declaration should produce a joint vision on existentialist affairs, without however eliminating the particularities of each, which will keep present in their speeches and conduct.
It was remarkable that the declaration did neither mention Hizbullah nor Future Movement in a direct way, hinting that the document is not directed against the others, and that neither side is mulling its strategic alliances.

Furthermore, since the presidential due date constitutes a top priority currently, the acid test for Aoun and Geagea is their success in begetting a joint approach to this issue, nay, a name.

In any event, the meeting between Aoun and Geagea will certainly pave the way for drawing a new Christian scene that will be completed as MP Sami Gemayel starts chairing Kataeb Party, which might be the be the biggest victim of the rapprochement between Maarb and Rabieh. Even more, Geagea will not hesitate to say frankly from Rabieh that the results of the referendum requested by Aoun are known in advance" the FPM and the LF enjoy the support of the majority of Christians.

The declaration is in the balance. But, how about the thorough calculations of Aoun and Geagea?

To Aoun, one can say that the minimum of understanding with Geagea will allow him to increase his chances to head the Lebanese state, on the basis of "the strong president" which made the headline of the declaration, especially that the rivals of the General used to propose what they assumed to be an impossible condition to accept his election as president: obtaining the support of Geagea.

Albeit time is young to go far with expectations and to presume from now that Geagea can possible turn from a "political mine" on Aoun's way to Baabda into "a mine sweeper," the progress in their dialogue makes this thing more difficult than impossible. And, what happened in Rabieh shall reinforce, in a way or another, the image of the "consensual candidate" which Aoun seeks to promote. He shall have no stronger evidence that his rapprochement with his fierce rival, Samir Geagea, to prove that he is indeed capable of extending his hand in all directions, according to the concept of "strong centrism" without being as yet provocative.

In addition, Aoun will take advantage of his rapprochement with Geagea to improve the conditions of the battle of restituting the rights of Christians in the state, under the ceiling of partnership and balance, underlined in the declaration of intents. This would embarrass Future Movement which was probably not happy watching Geagea cordially placing his hand on Aoun's shoulder during the joint press conference.

As to Geagea, the man also has his own considerations.

Some "malicious" assume that the LF leader implicitly intended to facilitate the possibility of inheriting part of Aoun's large popular base, and to impose himself as the first leader of Christians.

Nonetheless, regardless of the real intentions, Geagea knows and even acknowledges, deep down, that his alliance with Future Movement did not contribute to enhancing his parliamentary and ministerial presence inside the state. He now feels that his agreement with Aoun will be more fruitful and that it will allow him to reinforce his status when it comes to negotiating with his allies before his rivals.

Even though Geagea knows well that as to the presidency of the republic, the balance is swinging Aoun's way, he believes that the base of "the strong president" clinched in the declaration might make him a serious candidate in the next presidential polls.

The story of the visit

After the weekly meeting in Rabieh of the Change and Reform bloc, Lebanese Forces' Media and Communication representative, Melhem Riachi, arrived in Rabieh, to meet with MP Ibrahim Kanaan, as per a preset appointment, to prepare for the arrival of a security team from Maarab, with the view of coordination with Rabieh's security, ahead of a visit expected later by Geagea.

Nobody in Rabieh knew that Geagea was on his way to Rabieh. This is why a number of workers in the field of media and hospitality had left Rabieh. Aoun, for his part, had gone to his room for some rest. Meanwhile, Kanaan was strolling with Riachi and discussing with him in the logistic details of Geagea's looming visit.

After some time, Kanaan asked his visitor: "where are your men?" Few minutes later, Rabieh guards informed the secretary of the Change and Reform bloc that the car carrying on board the LF security team had arrived. Riachi smiled, and said to Kanaan: "Geagea has arrived."

Kanaan did not buy what he heard, especially that he is accustomed to Riachi's sense of humor.

But the latter insisted that Geagea was there. Soon enough, Rabieh Protection Chief, General Salim Feghali, shouted: "Geagea has arrived."

It was not long until the LF leader stepped out of the car and smiled, while Kanaan was still astonished. "Isn't it better like this?" Geagea said, laughing.
Kanaan dashed to welcome the guest. He accompanied him to the huge hall, repeating: "What have you done?" Meanwhile, a number of Aoun's bodyguards went upstairs to his room to wake him up.

Aoun dressed up quickly and went down the stairs to the aforementioned hall.
"What do you think of the surprise?" Geagea immediately asked. The General smiled and replied: "I was expecting surprises but not that much."