Centrist Approach to ISIS: A Threat to the Sunnis First

Nabil Haytham - Assafir newspaper

With the emerging of the ISIS in Iraq, MP Walid Jumblatt sounded the alarm so that the virus of ISIS does not hurt Lebanon, and so that in Lebanon, phenomena like Ahmad Assir and others in Sidon and Tripoli do not appear again.

Jumblatt did not call for dissociation from this peril, but for enhancing internal immunity to shirk the danger; doing so requires three stages: completing the presidential polls quickly, dialogue and regulating the political quandary, and rallying around the Lebanese army.

The danger is huge, as Jumblatt reckons, and maybe huger than any time before. What makes even more dicey is the outbidding and incitement campaigns by those who only care for their mere interest and who attempt to dupe the public opinion by denying any presence of ISIS and any danger of its reaching out to Lebanon, while the organization frankly announces Lebanon part of its realm.
"We will overcome the crisis," Jumblatt said, "under the condition that the Lebanese face it with realism, objectivity, and wisdom; the ball is in the court of politicians."

The security and military apparatuses did a tremendous job lately; and the more they beefed up coordination among each other, the more they were more effective in curving sabotage bids.

Jumblatt's approach to the internal scene intertwines with a centrist one that leads to the following:

- Lebanon has become a matter of concern and in a difficult situation that it hasn't witnessed since the independence, as if awaiting a time bomb.

- Ambassadors have lately notified the Lebanese political and security leaders that there was a serious will to subvert Lebanon by terrorist groups, threatening the interests of Lebanon and the West at a time; this explains the thrust of the western apparatuses to help Lebanon face the danger of terrorism.

- Lebanon, with its political and sectarian configuration, is subject to critical balances and equations. Therefore, it cannot constitute a supportive environment or a secure hotbed for the ISIS phenomenon and its alikes. Moreover, the Lebanese state is fully applied into the war on terrorism. Sleeping cells exist, but they only aim to raise concern and confusion.

- Lebanon can be depicted as the place where some groups just "go with the flow" and alter their positions according to the changes underway. Just until yesterday, these groups were supporting "al-Nusra" Front; now they do ISIS after the events in Iraq.

- ISIS announcing joining Lebanon to its realm was supposed to drive to declare a state of political and security emergency and to create a shock among politicians so that they see things as they are and dash to cease incitement and tensions, and to stand together in the face of what is looming.

- ISIS mobilizes as per a determined agenda. Its extension to Lebanon constitutes a threat to all political parties and sects; all minorities are menaced. If the direct target of terrorism is Hizbullah, then sapping moderation is another one. In addition, the success of ISIS attacks is tantamount to undermining the moderate Sunnis in Lebanon and threatening their political presence within the internal equation. Furthermore, it seems that Future Movement has started to realize this threat and to sense fear to lose everything. This is why the Movement looks excited to fight terrorism.

- There are states that went far in supporting ISIS and got deep-knee involved in investing in it, but are now afraid to pay the price alone. Everybody is reconsidering their calculations. In fact, the fragmentation of Iraq takes a toll on the entire region and threatens of changing the overall political geography therein. Saudi Arabia is sensing the danger. King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz criminalizes ISIS and grants USD 0.5 billion to the Iraqi people (Sunni clans) to get closer to the Saudi policy and stand in the face of ISIS. Besides, Iraq's division constitutes the biggest jeopardy to Turkey's independence and territories' integrity, because division would mean the establishment of a Kurdish state that would certainly strengthen Turkey's Kurdish which threatens the addition of Turkish lands sooner or later.

The most excited to the establishment of a Kurdish state in Turkey is "Israel," since such a state would rip the region, undermine Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, and constitute a permanent danger on Iran.
Objectivity and realism entail reneging on keep saying that Hizbullah's intervention in Syria was behind ISIS presence in Lebanon. The answer is the map of the ISIS state which included the states sponsoring the groups fighting for the Syrian regime. Let us suppose that attacking Hizbullah was due because of its backing Assad, then one must wonder: did the jihadists of Kuwait fight alongside the Syrian president so that they are punished and that Kuwait has to join the ISIS realms?