Aoun: I Am The Consensual President

Sami Kleib - al-Akhbar newspaper

General Michel Aoun's confidence that he is likely to become the next president of Lebanon is getting bigger.

His openness to everybody allows him to say that he is the only candidate capable of making a huge agreement among Sunnis, Shias, and Christians. He was barely affected by the fresh political movement in Paris and Riyadh. He keenly followed up on it; but he seems more than any other time trusting the promises of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

In counterpart, he doesn't seem as confident about the stance of Saudi Arabia yet. His analysis for what is happening in the region leads him to Iraq, where an Iranian-Saudi entente on the level of the next government and a better Sunni participation herein is possible. This would mirror an agreement in Lebanon too. Aoun wants a white page for Lebanon. He wishes for sovereignty away from any foreign interference.

But he also knows that this time the battle is fierce, because there aren't many candidates that enjoy Aoun's qualifications for presidency, and there will not be many personalities ready to face everybody in case of conspiracies and narrow deals. Besides, he showed no appetite at all for what was leaked from Baabda palace, about a deal as per which his son-in-law, General Shamel Roukoz, will be the next Defense Minister if the mandate of president Michel Suleiman is extended. He felt as if this package would divide the military institution.

He insists that extending the term of army commander General Jean Qahwaji was against the Constitution. Who knows, maybe deep inside, Aoun wants to brush Qahwaji aside the presidential race.

In Rabieh

When you visit Rabieh, you sense the hope that the possibility of Aoun reaching power is at 90 or even 100% "if what is sought is the solution," according to the General himself.

The policy of feeding the birds

Every morning, the almost-80-year-old man puts on his sports suit and takes care of his garden. To him, the nature has rooms for all, humans, birds, and animals; and this how he assimilates politics in Lebanon. No elimination for anybody and no monopoly by anybody.

Perhaps he is after utopia; at least it fits all sects. Therefore, it is inevitable to become more open to Sunnis, anchor agreement with Shias, and convince Jumblatt that there must be reconciliation in Mount Lebanon. Openness protects everybody, bolsters the presence of Christians, and saves the presidency of the republic.

In history, evidences on Aoun's idea of openness surge. Ever since he was a military commander in Souq al-Gharb against during the war of the Mount against the forces of the Progressive Socialist Party and its allies. Former President Amin Gemayel had asked him to advance in Souq al-Gharb towards the fief of Jumblatt's leadership. Aoun did not do as asked. Gemayel renewed the order.

Aoun then answered: "Let's assume that I made the army advance and reach Mukhtara and arrest Walid Jumblatt. What will you do next? In this country, there is only dialogue and agreement. Let us have an agreement with him and spare him and us hundreds of martyrs."

That was thirty years ago. Aoun was perhaps able to win the battle of Souq al-Gharb, and maybe not. This doesn't really matter. What matter is that today, whoever visits Rabieh will only perceive Aoun's keenness on agreeing with Jumblatt as well as on the unity of the Mount. It was not a coincidence to send a senior delegation, headed by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, to the Mount town of Brih to partake in the recent reconciliation last Saturday. Moreover, Jumblatt's slip of the tongue was quiet risible when he welcomed Aoun as "H.E. Mr. President."

Furthermore, in a meeting that took place between Samir Geagea and Aoun shortly after the killing of Rafic Hariri in 2005, the Lebanese Forces leader spoke of the importance of the Christians' alliance with Sunnis to face Hizbullah. Aoun advised not to do so, because Christians do not bear the consequences of such a confrontation. Geagea replied that the Americans and others had asked so.

Another meeting took place in Bkerki, in presence with Christian leaders among whom Gemayel, Aoun, Geagea, Marada Movement Leader Sleiman Franjieh, and others. Aoun made sure to take a clear position. He related what happened and then turned and look at Geagea and asked him, "Do you agree on what I said?" Geagea answered, "Yes. All of it is correct. But I did not say that the Americans asked that. I understood that they wanted that."

In addition, one shall not omit the meeting between Aoun and Hizbullah's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah before and after the former's meeting with Saad Hariri. Talks featured on the necessity to return to the principle of openness to Sunnis. The "joint paper of understanding" signed by Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement has saved Lebanon many tribulations and upheld the Resistance. In its introduction, the paper reads about the salience of national dialogue and consensual democracy. What is it that today hampers a bigger understanding that saves the presidency, stops sectarian strife, and enhances the participation of all in power?

In Rabieh, Aoun is seemingly certain about his growing relation with Hariri, and even more trusting Sayyed Nasrallah. He is also more confident about some regional and international changes towards him. It could be that his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, conveyed to him some regional trust after he met with Egypt's Abdul Fattah Sisi.

How about Saudi Arabia?

This is the key question in Rabieh. A contact between Aoun and Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Awadh Asseri, took place. Before the phone call, Bassil issued a statement thereby welcoming Saudi Arabia's determination to allow its citizens return to Lebanon. However, there is still some mystery related. Is Hariri's openness covered by a Saudi support or not? Is the new agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran on the upcoming Iraqi government in favor of Aoun or not?

"I want a relation with everybody expect "Israel". But I did not and I will not accept to be made by any foreign state. If there is a local, regional, and international conviction that I shall be the consensual president for the sake of the sought solution in Lebanon, then I am ready. Nonetheless, if there is anyone who wants to impose a president for other reasons, then I am ready too but [only] (...) to face that," Aoun maintains.

In Rabieh, everybody still waits. People come visit. Hope grows bigger and questions become numerous. The General smiles as he feeds the birds under a fruit tree in his garden. He knows he is the top case in Lebanon's modern history. The fate of the president is in his hands, and so is the future of the presidency of the republic, and maybe the future of the largest part of Christians and the nation.