Will Saudi Arabia Give away Geagea’s Candidacy?

Nabil Haytham , as-Safir newspaper

The term of president Michel Suleiman has practically expired. The next head of the state is still unidentified until his name is regionally and internationally picked.

It is normal to directly question about the period of vacuum, or at least about the allowed period, or maybe about whether things will tilt towards a serious vacuum, amid talks about a total obstruction by Christian in the government and at the Parliament to press for speeding up the election of a new president of the republic.

And, there are immediate answers indeed: Are Christians anyway capable of paralysis? If Bkerki decides to lead this path, will Christians follow suit?
Apparently, there will be no surprises during the coming five days that are still left from Suleiman's mandate. But Bkerki still reckons on the unexpected in the last 15 minutes of the term, noting a signal waved by House Speaker Nabih Berri in that respect.

Turning to March 8 forces, the camp is waiting for Suleiman to leave Baabda palace on one hand, and keeping tabs on the all-of-a-sudden-invigorated Saudi movement on the other, whether through the activity of the Saudi envoy in Lebanon or through the meetings Foreign Minister Saoud al- Faisal is holding with Lebanese politicians and candidates between Riadh and Paris.

It is true that the Saudi Ambassador speaks of a presidential due date that is Lebanese par excellence as well as of a made-in-Lebanon president; however, Saudi Arabia is at the core of the presidential dossier and its graphic details. It is neither far from Samir Geagea's candidacy nor from the fruitless dialogue between Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri.

A "Lebanese guest" who has just returned from Saudi Arabia conveys that "the Americans are the ones who are running the presidential game in Lebanon." "Dialogue between Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri is good but there are no promises for Aoun. It is not true that Hariri's return to head the government is linked to Aoun's reaching presidency. Moreover, Hariri realizes that he cannot deceive his allies and approve Aoun's candidacy. He also knows that electing Aoun means offering a victory to Hizbullah, Iran and Bashar Assad and a trouncing defeat to March 14 camp," the "guest" says.

It is to note that as the presidential term is nearing an end, Saudi Arabia will certainly change its approach to the presidential due date, as it will seek to speed up the election of a new head of the Lebanese state, because any lengthy vacuum will have reverberations, noting that the Kingdom refuses to talk about vacuum with the presence of Tammam Salam's government, which the Constitution grants the power to fill the presidential void.

This being said, Saudi Arabia will carry on the presidential path.

Actually, if there were suitable circumstances to extend Suleiman's mandate, Saudi Arabia would have welcomed, nay encouraged this step, since it does trust the man.
But, as the term extension is not at all envisaged, the Kingdom finds itself having to approach the Lebanese reality in a way that complies with its keenness on stability in Lebanon more than any time before and with the positive signs it keeps sending to Lebanon, most recent of which the return of ambassador Ali Awadh Asser in Beirut and its nationals in Lebanon.

This means that the Saudi approach to the post-Suleiman stage will not be divisive and conflicting. Therefore, Saudi Arabia will at first give away Samir Geagea's candidacy to the presidential polls or the candidacy of any other name from March 14 camp. This does not mean any concession for the sake of Michel Aoun, but for the sake of the "candidate of the settlement" which shall be named after the dialogue and agreement on all local, regional, and international levels.

In addition, the Saudi stance is not different of the American one, but it is rather a part of it. But until now, according to a Saudi official whose words were heard by an eminent minister, the climate in Lebanon is not fully prepared yet for the presidential elections and some time is still needed to settle on the adequate name.