Russia Offers Missiles, Cameron Offers Power Generators to Opposition

Three European countries open channels with Damascus...Will Washington change position?


Sami Kleib, As-Safir newspaper

When US Ambassador to Lebanon, Maura Connelly, was dictating to the Lebanese Banks Association not to flout sanctions on Syria and Iran, President Barack Obama was discussing with the Russians an adequate loophole whereby Washington accepts that Bashar Assad stays in power until his mandate expires and agrees to negotiate a political solution with representatives of the Syrian President. As a matter of fact, what is under the table is different from what is being revealed; some officials from the opposition are expressly voicing concerns over a possible change in the US position.

"It is not strange that the Americans sell us, they have applied themselves to doing so," a former French diplomat directly concerned with the region's dossier says on the US policy in the Syrian crisis. "If Bashar Assad wanted to create an opposition that suited him, he wouldn't have found any better than the one currently fighting him. This opposition has disappointed all hopes when it got fragmented and handed the conflict keys to al-Qaeda and al Nusra Front," he says, adding that nothing would have pleased or satisfied "Israel" more than the current inter-fighting, destruction, and sectarian discord in Syria.

What does information say?

At least three European countries, Germany, Belgium, and Italy, have started underhanded contacts with Damascus. These countries sternly reject arming the opposition. They fear terrorism would turn against them. They also believe that French President Francois Hollande must immediately put terms to the adventure his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy had started. In France, the internal opposition to the French-Qatari alliance is considerably growing. In fact, doubts over the role of Doha in funding extremists in Africa, Libya, and Syria are spiraling. The shelves of French libraries abound with books and publications against Qatar, and articles teem in leftist and rightist newspapers. The last straw was when a huge dispute erupted with the fans of Paris Saint Germain, the football club Qatar has bought. Riots ran throughout Trocadero square, overlooking Eiffel Tower." Was this because of Qatar and its funds?" local channels wondered.

Information say that lists Damascus handed to the United Nations on "terrorists" and "dangerous extremists" from 28 Arab and foreign countries started to spark real concerns in Europe. Many of these names were already included as wanted in the European and US black lists. Today, security apparatuses are examining the lists. This requires an underhanded coordination with the Syrian, Lebanese, Iranian, and Russian security authorities. Visits are being exchanged away from the limelight. Moreover, Turkey's blasts raised questions about the spillover of Syria's conflagration into countries next door, and the command of Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed incapable of carrying on its commitment to oust the regime by force. Turkey's own regime has become in crosshairs of suspicions and condemnations over its adventure in Syria.

According to the information, Washington, which accepted that Assad stays in power until his mandate expires, is now in an embarrassing situation. US officials frankly explained to their Russian counterparts that they were unable to make a sudden shift. They asked for some time. Obama, rabidly attacked by Republicans and neo-conservatives because of the killing of the US ambassador in Benghazi, is short of means to talk the internal public opinion into change. His envoys confirm that he may find himself in big trouble with the Syrian opposition that has started to sense a certain dastardly "bargain" between Moscow and Washington. The announced speech against Assad must continue, even though talks behind closed doors are totally different.

It is ok that UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, says pressure shall continue. He was not even ashamed to say that he would provide the opposition with power generators! At that very moment, Russia was confirming missiles deal with Syria. Anyway, rumor has it US diplomats have earned kickbacks from the Gulf to carry on the battle.

Information add that postponing Geneva II meeting was not a matter of coincidence. It was rather agreed upon by Russia and the US, since there must be a prelude to persuading the internal opinion in America of the US shift towards settlement. America and the Europeans realized that Vladimir Putin's alliance with Syria was stronger that they thought. Moscow has said, to whom it may concern, that NATO drones would be downed over Syria if they ever got into the airspace. Moscow has also dashed to berate the "Israeli' attack, even before Hizbullah has done. It has confirmed that its weapons would keep on flowing into Syria, that "Israel" should not worry, and that its position would not change if "Israel" did worry.

Information lastly maintain that at least half of the Gulf states kept on direct contact with the Syrian command. Only Qatar and KSA are perplexed. Prince Hamad knows well that he can't just lose the battle no matter what. He finally realized that Iran started to show its claws and that the West fears armed Jihadists more than it does the regime. Tehran's doors must be then knocked on!

For its part, Egypt has heard from a number of BRICS countries, after President Mohammad Mursi's visits, that the political solution was the key and that gearing up the opposition must end. This is what Egypt's army and intelligence services believe, according to the recent information Damascus got.
This also leads to agreeing with Tehran. It is no big deal if Gulf states got irate: hasn't Saudi media leveled a vehement campaign against Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood? Qatar tried to chip in billions of dollars and bought three-billion-dollar treasury bonds. This is no more useful. Cairo has succinctly said that Iran was part of the solution in Syria, not the problem. Lines between Egypt and Iran are more than many may think.

This climate is deemed advantageous for the Syrian Arab Army. The SAA is tightening grip in Qusayr and will then do so in other regions. A Syrian opposition figure, who has had strong ties with gunmen, says that everyone gave up on them and that they are being lied to. "We only hear promises while missiles shower us. We sense a big deal being cooked. We are left with two options: whether to fall as martyrs or to succumb. Some leaders started contacts with the regime to agree on surrender. Everyone fooled us and we no longer believe anyone," he says. He also promises that he will be speaking out to media soon, confirming that senior military officials second him.

This feeling has also started to spread among the Syrian Opposition Coalition. Some factions of the coalition say that the US is deceiving them and that there is no need to go to Geneva talks, "because the US wants to bargain on us." Some regional and international poles consider that there must be a serious security violation of the armed opposition and a quality operation against personalities or military hubs. It has been said that pressures had been exerted on Hamas Movement to raise the voice against the Syrian regime.

Some of these pressures were correlated to bids by some of Hamas factions to return to agree with Hizbullah and Iran and to present another analysis of what is happening. To the West, Hamas is not like the Muslim Brotherhood, albeit it is part of it. For its part, "Israel" has a saying on this, where horizons narrow for Hamas despite all the promises it is receiving from its new allies.

The picture is now clear. The SAA has fixed upon ending the conflict and it is not negotiating before many fronts are in its grip. Obama himself may have become accepting to change the reality on the ground to convince his people of a possible change and to attenuate embarrassment before the opposition. Yet on the other hand, some parties know that they cannot lose the battle and may be fiercer in the next stage. In fact, the Russian-US train is now on track, but on the way, there can be demands. So far, neither the Syrian regime nor Putin are convinced of the good US intentions.

Where is Lebanon amid all this?

Three significant lines concise the position of the Syrian officials: "Damascus stands by Lebanon, with all its communities and components, but it will never accept conspiracies some Lebanese are designing with Arab countries and Turkey to sap the Resistance. The strategic alliance which was baptized by blood between the Resistance and Syria no more accepts bets and adventures. What was admissible in the past is absolutely not now."

By this, Damascus may be hinting contacts by some Lebanese with KSA, Qatar, and Turkey. The way Syria views Prince Bandar Bin Sultan is known. But at the same time, Syria keeps flexible with KSA, especially that Iran's contacts with Riyadh are on the right track nowadays.

Wondering if it is Walid Jumblatt, Saad Hariri, and Samir Geagea who are those meant, a story, which only Syrians, Saudis, Qataris and Turkish know, may answer the doubts. Two years ago, Qatar and Turkey suggested keeping Saad Hariri on top of the government, while KSA told the Syrians it had little appetite for that option. Damascus shared that same stance.

Some Syrian officials feel that many Saudi and Qatari sides are pushing some Lebanese parties towards escalation, and are waiting that this be crystallized through the next cabinet formation process and the legislative polls. They say that this will not last for long, since he who gives green light to escalation is the same who will order pacification when need be.

Is still Damascus able to wield influence on the situation in Lebanon, the government, and the elections? There is no straight answer, but a light smile. "Our alliance with the Resistance, Hizbullah, and some Lebanese leaderships who stood by us in this crisis was not as strong as it is today. Whoever thinks the opposite must reconsider their opinion."

Besides, any major ententes in the region will not be carried out without the US, Russia, KSA, Egypt, and Iran. Is the candidature of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to the next presidential polls sheer coincidence? Is what is happening under the table between Washington and Tehran similar to what is revealed?