War Scenarios on Syria: Tel Aviv vs. Damascus

Ghassan Jawad - al-Joumhouria newspaper

The Syrian dossier has now taken a new fork, following the US statements on
chemical weapons in Syria, and claims of their usage in the military conflict zones.
Clearly enough, surfacing and shedding light on this dossier in politics as well as in security are more than just a maneuver by Washington and its allies to increase pressure on Damascus and its allies. Broaching this dossier actually implies either a limited military action or a wider attack, something that would incur new game rules in the region.

The scene of the "Syrian chemical" may be quite similar to that of "Iraq nuclear case." The political, media, and diplomatic snowball is now rolling and crowing, only to herald changes of the rules that have been directing the conflict in Syria for more than two years.

We may see a scenario similar to what happened in Iraq, only this time it is harsher, bloodier, and more destructive, despite differences in details. The US, UK and their allies will not be alone in the confrontation, with Iran, Russia, and China standing in defense of their interests in the Middle East inside and outside Syria. "Israel" would be dealt the biggest ballistic blow in its history if Washington ever attacked Syria, or if it assigned the attack to Tel Aviv, to avoid direct friction with Moscow and Beijing, on the Syrian battlefield that is now open to all possibilities.

Tel Aviv vs. Damascus

This is how the Resistance axis reads any quality development on the Syrian level. The decision that has been taken and that Tehran has conveyed to its allies and rivals means that any military blow against Damascus will be directly countered in Tel Aviv and that the retort will be destructive; the interests of the West in the entire Gulf will also be subject to targeting.

According to the available information, the visit of the Chairman of the Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in Iran, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, to Syria last week, carried along an express stance and confirmed commitment towards Damascus. Informed sources described the equation which Boroujerdi has clinched as a deterrence one. He actually said during his meeting in Syria that Tel Aviv would be vs. Damascus if Washington or "Israel" ever attacked Syria. Within this context, observers saw Boroujerdi's concerted attack on Qatar as a clear Iranian classification of rivals and enemies.

Russia and China

Moscow and Beijing, for their part, are not disparate to the Iranian position rejecting military action against Damascus. But the Russian performance keeps compliant with the US and western diplomacy, and does not implicate in direct messages, at least not before Russia senses that the decision of war has been taken.

Beijing, in turn, which dashed to issue a statement spurning foreign military intervention in Syria under any pretense whatsoever, is still within the frame of the political refusal which shall not develop into first-hand mobilization, unlike Moscow.

Experts of international relations and US policies point out at the importance of the Chinese position in politics, which may drive Washington to avoid any direct friction with China and Russia in Syria, and then to press "Israel" for a determined military act, similarly to what happened in July war in 2006. That year, Washington pressured Tel Aviv to wage a confrontation it was not ready for. "Israel" got out without realizing any military and political score, which brought tremendous victory to the Resistance axis in the region, and embarrassed Washington without totally excluding it from the Lebanese dossier.

Syria is getting ready

Syria is the most concerned with the US statements and intentions. It is acting on the basis that all possibilities are envisaged. Information indicate that the Syrian military command, in coordination with its allies, has devised plans and scenarios taking into account a likely foreign attack.

These scenarios are not new-fangled, and declaring them is not a reaction to the US and western statements. They are rather plans Damascus has put since the beginning of the events, when confrontation seemed wide open and when Damascus realized that the political solution option was just a waste of time, amid a big war the US, Turkey, and the Gulf are leading against the capital of the Umayyad.

While Syrian officials carefully listened to every word Boroujerdi has said during their meetings, information confirm that they notified him of Damascus firm decision as to its readiness to face any attack...Damascus will just not be another Baghdad.