Primary Agreement on Postponing the Elections Till September?

Johnny Mnayyar - Al-Joumhouria daily

Discussions behind closed doors among officials are mainly revolving around the likelihood to postpone the legislative polls. The President of the Republic has told his close milieus that the possibility to put off the polls exceeded 50%. As to the Prime Minister, the emphasis of western envoys on the necessity to carry out the elections on time does not seem as convincing.

For his part, the Minister of Interior and Municipalities has said more than once that there are big chances the elections would be delayed. Yet more, he has even gone further with his statements away from the limelight.
In turn, the House Speaker has recurrently told his itinerants there are major risks the polls would be postponed, because of the uncertainty prevailing on both the local and regional levels.
At any rate, the parliamentary sub-committee tasked with studying a new electoral law is about to conclude its work. Until now, the sub-committee failed to finalize a draft law that would enjoy the agreement of its members. This is why Speaker Nabih Berri is trying to endorse a hybrid law equally mixing the majoritarian and proportional vote systems. But such a proposal seems to be unviable as Future Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party still reject proportionality.

Furthermore, MPs George Adwan and Sami Gemayel have two proposals based upon the hybrid system. Therefore, the sub-committee would have additional drafts to skim through; yet none of them is even close to reap unanimity among the committee's members.
One MP from the sub-committee has even stated that too many proposals to mix up voting systems made the discussions all mixed up. This gives a clear idea about the outcome of the sub-committee talks.

Besides, it is true that the relation has improved between the Lebanese Forces and Future Movement after a Future delegation had visited Maarab and after a contact between [MP Saad] Hariri and [Head of Lebanese Forces Samir]Geagea. However, the complications over the electoral law are still pending. Geagea said his coalitions would not be replaced with others, but he stressed the necessity to find solutions to provide the best representation for Christians through a just electoral law. Moreover, Minister Wael Abu Faour, who had visited Maarab before the quandary over the Orthodox Gathering proposal exploded, told Geagea that [Head of the National Struggle Front MP]Walid Jumblatt insisted on reducing the share of Christians on his list in Chouf from two to one seat merely. That is, it is whether Dori Chamoun or George Adwan who would run on Jumblatt's list. Meanwhile, it is clear that Saad Hariri favors his relation with Jumblatt over his alliance with Geagea.
When the Lebanese Forces announced their support for the Orthodox proposal, Hariri thought Geagea has fallen in the trap of Christian outbidding with Aoun. He then mended his pace to include MP Boutros Harb and other Christian figures on his side. Simultaneously, some March 14 personalities were depicted as men of principles, in reference to those convening at Harb's residence; others were deemed as the opposite, like the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb. Subsequently, some ventured into claiming there are political backgrounds and considerations for the stances of the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb. Both parties were even accused of making a political tilt down to the Syrian events.

During the interview made by Marcel Ghanem with Saad Hariri, it was clear how the former Prime Minister intended to speak bitterly of his relation with Walid Jumblatt and to refer to Pierre Daher, whose ties with Geagea are strained on judicial backgrounds. Nonetheless, Hariri's reference to Geagea was at best slim.
But during the latest meetings for Future Movement in Maarab, the principles of coalition over all political, regional, Syrian, and internal issues were reiterated, except for the electoral law, which is still a weakness in the two-pronged relation, especially that the Christian street is now mobilized in terms of just representation, a matter of high importance and great influence on the Christians' ballot boxes.
Albeit this internal dimension is highly considerable, it remains secondary when one comes to think about how it would be like after torpedoing the elections. It is the question House Speaker Nabih Berri raises behind closed doors.
In case the electoral sub-committee fails to come up with a new law, Deputies will be summoned to vote on the Orthodox Gathering proposal at the Parliament. The law is likely to gain a majority of votes. But the President of the Republic will then work on revoking it, and there will be a quandary that will certainly torpedo the polls.

Afterwards, only two solutions will be left: the Parliament's mandate is to be extended for one year until a new electoral law is reached; and this is a solution that satisfies all those wagering on changes in Syria. It also opens the doors wide to extend the terms of the President and the government as some aspire. The second solution is to see a parliamentary vacuum take place. Therefore, the Parliament's powers will be transferred to the government, which means a state of internal vacuum that is hard to exit, unless an international meeting is held and a third republic is born, just like the year 1990 with Taif Agreement. But this requires a key condition relevant to having an adequate regional climate and the success of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Yet, this is an unguaranteed bet, at least for now.

Thus, the electoral law "crisis" seems much more than the Lebanese can take. This is what pushes the Future Movement to bet on a failure to approve a new electoral law and hence, all parties will go back to the 1960 law, even though this might produce a "shock" among Christians, whose reprisal will be through the ballot box.
Nevertheless, the official milieus are now veering towards opting for postponing the elections until September, whereas three months should be enough to Okay a new electoral law, in high hopes that this doesn't lead to another postponement and so on.