March 8 Forces Start "Counter Attack" Through Date and Law Ahead of Electoral Battle

Ibrahim Bayram - An-Nahar Daily

The key headline of the belligerence between parties in Lebanon is, from now on, the legislative elections.

This conviction has become anchored among the opposition forces after they got certain that their wagering on the conflict in Syria is useless; since the battle between the regime and its opponents is seemingly to last long.

At the same time, March 8 forces, nay the key trio hereof, are in turn convinced that their rivals-unremittingly seeking to overthrow the government-are merely concerned with the ballot boxes, expected to be opened next June.

Building on this, March 8 decision-makers have implicitly applied themselves to avoiding any return to the pre-Mikati's government era, come what may.
Indeed, March 8 camp has ventured into a counter attack aimed at confirming that the legislative elections cannot take place on time according to the current 1960 law.

In the beginning, it was all about some hint and waving. Nonetheless, the battle became unearthed following the meeting between the representatives of the said trio and the closing quasi-official statement.
Well-versed sources in March 8 camp are now aware of the West's weakness, that is insisting on having the polls on time, pursuant to democracy and the Constitution. Hence, March 8 camp is wielding pressure on this weakness, noting that it is bracing itself for all options, so that it would not be taken aback by the elections based on the 1960 system.

Within this frame, came Hizbullah's visit in Zahle, and the ensuing efforts to prevent March 8 longtime ally, former Minister Elie Skaff, from moving to the other side and thus cutting this camp's way to running a real electoral battle in this Beqaa town.
Some see this "crawling" towards Skaff came late, especially that the man had been to KSA. However, Hizbullah sources confirm that communication is still underway with Skaff, who just recently met over dinner with Hizbullah's number 2, Sheikh Naeem Qassem.

Furthermore, Hizbullah leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told a panel of the party's students, during a fresh 150-minute meeting, that the party was basically dealing with the elections issue as if it would take place on time.
Besides, the idea of the "centrist bloc" reached March 8 camp, noting that this bloc, in light of the elections' results, might control the political game and decision, instead of March 8 or March 14. Of course, March 8 camp is also aware of the centrists' attempt to come closer to the Maronite Patriarchate to obtain its cover and blessings, since, at the Parliament; this bloc will be part of the already divided Christian group.

Focus is now shed on Kesserwan District, and then on North Metn, where centrists can run for elections, deal a blow to Michel Aoun, and place the neo-centrism in the hands of President Michel Suleiman, seeking to be the leader of centrists.
Coming to evaluate this idea, March 8 camp does not necessarily give in to the President's wish. In fact, surveys show that Aoun is still the most powerful; and March 8 components will not be lenient in the elections because they are still doubtful about the President and they do not regard him as a centrist figure.

As to the "special" mobilization of House Speaker Nabih Berri-especially during his meetings with a March 14 delegation and Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel, where he intertwined with Walid Jumblatt's centrism, March 8 camp has a different reading. Berri always keeps a certain particularity, being the head of the legislative power. March 8 would not even mind Berri's action vis-à-vis March 14 camp, if it decided to renege on the boycott decision and return to political realism.
Therefore, March 8 camp is not disturbed by this primary communication between Berri and March 14, and which begot the opposition's return to the legislative committee tasked with discussing the electoral law.

In addition to assuaging the existing tension, Berri's mobilization-according to March 8-pushed the opposition to return to visit Ain-el-Tineh because it tacitly realized the mistake of boycotting the Parliament and of its impulsive decision lacking the least modicum of political maturity.

Albeit late, this "repentance" was the fruit of Berri's initiative, aimed at securing to the opposition a loophole to the gridlock.
Anyway, turning to Berri for help is indeed a sort of recognition of the "guilt" of having attacked the Speaker, and even threatened not to re-elect him on top of the speakership, a post he's been filling since 1992.

This is what March 8 believes, even though March 14 intends not to turn a deaf ear to some advice calling it not to grant those wishing to postpone the elections what they seek.