Eye on the Enemy: Rocket Propelled Grenades...Psychological Effect
170 thousand Rocket-propelled grenades against Arrow and Iron Dome systems
Ynet - Yoav Zitun
Attacking Iran might lead to a disorderly counter-attack with more than 170 thousand rockets and several hundred rockets, almost from every direction _ but in Israel they are convinced that the defensive systems save "lives in quantities". Why Iran is less terrorized and who possesses the larger arsenal?
In case attacking Iran's nuclear facilities went into effect, "Israeli" inside territories might be hit with a large number of rocket-propelled grenades and rockets by the Islamic Republic and its allies: Israel estimates that Syria has 100 thousand rockets, Hizbullah has about 60 thousand, and Hamas owns about 12 thousand and the Iranians have about 450 missiles of accurate hits.
As far as the attack opponents know, the decision to postpone the military activity will not reduce the size of the threat. According to estimates in the security establishment, countries and organizations in the region will continue the process of arms in the coming years and the amount of rocket-propelled grenades and rockets in its possession will increase by tens of percents _ combat means that would be the primary weapon, if not the only, for every enemy against "Israel" in any future war.
Of the other hand, "Israel" stands with air defense systems of its own _ four batteries of the Iron Dome, two others will be received next year, the Arrow 2 system and the Magic Wand which is now under development. "Compared to the tens of thousands of missiles", says the arrow system developer Uzi Rubin, "these systems will save the lives of humans in quantities."
Hizbullah has about 60 thousand rocket-propelled grenade, five times what it had in the second Lebanon war. Most of them are able to reach the southern entrances to Haifa, several thousands of rocket-propelled grenades, according to estimate of the security establishment are able to reach Tel Aviv and al-Quds (Jerusalem), and several dozens and hundreds are able to reach Beersheba.
Several dozen are actually missiles in every sense of the word, which are equipped with a guidance system capable of dragging he rocket to a specific point (such as a military base or a national strategic facility) _ Unlike rocket propelled grenades, which are of low accuracy and lethality but they have the ability to largely intimidate.
Not only Hizbullah, Tehran's central activity in the Middle East, is growing too. In addition to arms with Russian advanced anti-aircraft missiles, the collapsed Assad regime still hides in its fortifications nearly 100 thousand rockets of various types.
In the case of Hizbullah, even here most of the rocket-propelled grenades are effective at short ranges of up to about 50 km, but 2000 of these rockets are able to reach Haifa and Tel Aviv. Smaller amount covers most of the area of the State of "Israel". In the event of the outbreak of a war in the region, it is known that even Hamas is able to participate in the fire towards "Israel". In the hands of the organization in control of Gaza Strip an arsenal of 12 thousand rocket-propelled grenades, mostly (over 90%) are effective at common , short and medium ranges _ Beersheba in the east and Ashdod and Avna in the north. A small section of missiles are capable of reaching Tel Aviv.
But in the security establishment they worry more, of course, of the Islamic Jihad, which has accumulated a large force in the sector and led part of the escalation rounds toward "Israel" as it is the "ambassador" of Iran to Gaza. Although "Israel" estimates that its military strength is equivalent to the power of Hamas, but the amount of rocket-propelled grenade the organization retains is unknown or the setting from which they will operate - Gaza or Sinai _ if "Israel" attacked Iran. Nothing will prevent the global jihad organizations stationed in the Sinai to join the war and fire Grad rocket-propelled grenades toward "Israel".
Certainly the Iranian missiles that threaten to "wipe "Israel"" off the map the whole time, slightly disturb the security establishment. According to various estimates, the Iranians own about 450 long-range Shahab missiles able to hit precise targets in "Israel" with a capacity for 2.6 km errors. Such a missile warhead usually includes about 750-1000 kg of explosive materials, four times more than the Scud missile that destroyed a house in Abu Hilal Street in Ramat Gan during the Gulf War.
However, the large distance from Iran (about 1,300 kg) will allow the Army to disclose the missile, warn the public before at least ten minutes and launch the Arrow missile to intercept the Shahab.
The Effect of Grenades is Psychological
It is worth mentioning that the huge arsenal mentioned above includes grenades and not missiles. The rocket propelled grenades can reach several kilometers in good condition, apart from guided missile with the ability of control between tens and hundreds of meters.
According to Aman's former chief, Head of the School of security threats Research, Major General (Res.) Amos Yadlin, "the rocket propelled grenade impact is low, mostly falling in open fields. Rocket-propelled grenades are a terrorist mean with a psychological impact. We are able to defend ourselves from it, we have the ability to attack, warn and intercept. "
Regarding the set missiles, according to estimates, Hizbullah, Syria and Iran would seek to preserve the warehouse of their weapons and will not fire them all. Part of that will fail to be released, another part on will be intercepted by the Arrow systems or Iron Dome (and in the future also by the magic wand) and only a small section would hit its goal.
Rubin, a holder of Israel's security Order, explains "any defensive system will not be able to secure a normal life when they launch rockets at you, but it will also maintain the human life by to a certain extent. Second Lebanon war killed 53 Israelis by the fall of 4200 rockets by Hizbullah which mostly hit open areas. The small number that succeeded to hit was primitive rocket-propelled grenades without a guidance system, including Katyusha rockets which include explosive material.
Moreover, if (Sayyed) Nasrallah said he had 60 thousand rocket-propelled grenades in the stores, this does not mean that all will be launched, as only a small part of the arsenal was launched in 2006. These numbers were allocated to cause panic and discomfort."
Rubin estimated they have developed in Russia, dozens of rockets with guidance
systems on a missile based on the Iranian Fateh-110 missile. It is possible that some were transferred to Hizbullah. "With this they become able to choose between hitting a station operated by the electric company or the gas station, with the ability to accurately hit a few hundred meters away from the goal. From a statistical point of view, if they wanted to hit Hakriya base in Tel Aviv, they have to fire six or seven missiles of this type, one that hits the vicinity of the base and other fall on the surroundings and this will not be good news."
Robin clarifies that although the missiles are not accurate, but if it was fired towards residential centers as large as Tel Aviv, the chances of injury will be greater, and says: "In the south most of these missiles will not hit, because the residential communities are few, but when you talk about rocket-propelled grenades, such as Fajr-5 in the possession of Hizbullah that reach Tel Aviv, then the strike will be two kilometers to three kilometers away from the target. As it is well known, the Tel Aviv and Haifa stretch over a large populated area. With active defense systems, there will be economic damage, because people will not be able to work and the boys will not go to school, but our case without defense systems would have been more disastrous. "
There is an additional element we have to take into account in the equations of blood which is the "Israeli" response, the defensive and offensive. Although the Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in the past that only 500 people will be killed in the battle with Iran, but security sources say that the number of dead could not be assesses and is subject to a number of variables.
America Lends a Hand
What is it about? The warning capacity of the home front along with the cooperation of the population, the ability of air defense, intelligence capability to hit rocket launchers (large ones that fire rocket-propelled grenades to Tel Aviv and Haifa, are more easily diagnosed) and frequency of fire. Despite the improvements made to the Iron Dome system in the final weeks, it is still of very partial coverage and cannot face the barrages launched at residents of the north, south and center.
With this, the benefit of this system, in case "Israel" was provided with extra batteries, would break the equation in the next war - with an 80% interception ability recorded by the system so far this past year and a half, and the importance is the actual 80% decrease in the munitions rockets of Hamas or Hizbullah.
In addition, the security source reminds of the assistance that can be provided by the United States to "Israel" - Patriot launchers that part of it are found in the country, but another part can be sent to the country through transport planes that can distribute within 24 hours the naval interception missile system Aegis found on U.S. destroyers and warships in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to all that, the same source reminds of the atmosphere of tension with the U.S. administration, saying: "Assuming, of course, that they would help".
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Ashkenazi: A Strategic Decision to Be Made in a Dialogue with The Military
Amir Bohbot, Walla! News
External watchman: former chief of staff, Lt. Gen. (reserve) Gabi Ashkenazi was speaking at Fisher Institute conference and referred to the dialogue between the political echelon and the general staff while alluding to the tense situation of the leadership. "Strategic decisions must be taken into consideration in the dialogue between the political and military echelons before a war," he said, "The General Staff and its head cannot sit outside the political echelon's discussions about a possible war. They must be there and if they aren't there then they need to make it happen, this way there will be less mistakes."
Ashkenazi spoke of a conversation that took place between the army and the political echelon during the operation, "Livni told me in one of these discussions, I feel uncomfortable with what the military goes through these discussions. It is your job as the head of the army to maintain the course and the decisions taken in such situations. It would not be right to wait, or you cannot play on it, or you have to wait and see how it happens. Eventually we implemented a ground operation in the Gaza Strip. We had dilemma finishing the operation. It took us more than three weeks to finish it. But because of the disagreement with the political echelon and leadership, we sat there (in Gaza) and the operation ended after three weeks. There were those who thought that we should continue since no one was hurt. And some strongly opposed. . This reflected the controversy of those above us. "
Ashkenazi argues that these dilemmas will be no different during broader action. "I think it would not be different in future operations. I advise the General Staff to be a part of the political decisions. Internally, at the strategic level, decision makers are influenced by the talks going on. "Ashkenazi's speech was largely about the dialogue between the politicians General Staff. "This type of discourse is the duty of the political leadership with the military. It is clear that it must be done, and will run the forces in a more appropriate way. Sometimes it involves arguments. Before the Cast Lead Operation, some thought that things must have been undermined and other thought that an agreement should be reached. Others thought we should have occupied parts of the Gaza Strip. "
"I would strongly recommend, as I said to my replacement Benny Gantz, to thoroughly engage into that debate," said Eskenazi. "I told him - 'Benny, try to figure out how you want to get out of it. There is a close relationship between high achievements and the price you want to pay. That's what I found it. The Political leadership gave us a professional dialogue. They asked us to introduce the goals .The end result was a serious blow to Hamas. We achieved deterrence and quietness in the south. "
Former foreign minister, Tzipi Livni Also spoke at the conference, she said: " any military action without international legitimacy cannot be achieved, we must produce international legitimacy with the pragmatists in the region. " The minister also addressed the relationship between Washington and al-Quds ( Jerusalem), and said: "As we externalize the disputes with the United States, "Israel" will be weak regarding the possibility of a military action. I held screaming talks with Condoleezza Rice that even bothered neighbors but no one knew what the content of these conversations was. The preparations should be done quietly by ourselves and then we mobilize the world. The situation where they say "Catch me" , I do not adopt or accept. "
Yoav Galant, who commanded the operation in Gaza as the Southern Command during Cast Lead Operation also spoke at the conference. He stressed that after his opinion to occupy Rafah during the operation was refuted, he thought that leaving Gaza as soon as possible is a must. "The withdrawal operation was late and wasted. You could have done that ten days after the beginning of operational activity, but it was not accepted. "
Source: "Israeli" Media, translated and edited by moqawama.org
