Eye on the Enemy: Mid-East War Fears after Iran’s Blast, Fears of Abduction Drive ’’IDF’’ to Maneuver
Mid-East War Fears after Iranian Base Blasts, Syria's Arab League suspension
DEBKAfile
The potential for a regional flare-up shot up Friday and Saturday, Nov-11-12, with the blasts at two Iranian arms bases which killed tens of Revolutionary Guards men including Iran's top missile expert, and the Arab League Foreign Ministers' decision to suspend Syria's membership over Bashar Assad's brutal military crackdown on civilians.
In Kuwait, lawmakers demanded an urgent debate on the potential fallout from an attack on Iran three days after British ministers were briefed on a possible US-backed "Israeli" strike against Iran's nuclear sites in the last week of December or early next year.
Hopes faded for effective international sanctions in the wake of nuclear watchdog evidence of Iran's nuclear capabilities, even as US President Obama tackled Russian and Chinese leaders at.
Hours after the base explosions in Iran, the Arab League decided to suspend the membership of its ally Syria and impose political and economic sanctions on al-Assad regime.
Members were advised to withdraw their ambassadors from the Syrian capital until their Nov. 2 peace plan was implemented. The AL decision was praised by US President Barack Obama and backed by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
This penalty hurts Bashar al-Assad more than would a threatened Turkish invasion and seizure of a buffer enclave to serve the Syrian opposition.
It conveys the Arab world's rejection of the legitimacy of Bashar Assad's regime. The Syrian ruler has got away with defying the UN Security Council, NATO and even Washington.
He will find it much harder to survive being cast out of the fold by his Arab brethren who are punishing him for the contempt he showed for the peace deal they initiated and he signed by having his troops kill another 250 civilians in ten days.
Indeed the Qatari foreign minister Hamad bin Jassim, reading out of the decision, warned Assad that further non-compliance would result in "more steps to protect the citizens of Syria" by the Arab League - a broad hint at military intervention to aid the beleaguered opposition as Assad tried ineffectually to brand the Arab bloc American puppets.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan are already arming Syrian opposition groups and Turkey is hosting their command and training facilities. The scenario is beginning to resemble the Libyan format. There too, Qatari, Jordanian and Turkish military elements took part in the NATO operation to overthrow Muammar Qaddafi. And Bashar al-Assad may be nearing the end of his tether.
No one any longer credits his word after his repeated promises in the nine-month uprising against him to pull his troops out of city centers, release prisoners and enact reforms, while only piling on the savagery. His army is turning against him.
Even before the Arab League struck home, the tens of trained fighters going over to the opposition in the early months of the conflict were swelling in the last two weeks to hundreds, taking their arms with them. The ruling Assad clan and military command have reached a crossroads in the pact they concluded in March to extinguish the uprising regardless of the cost in blood.
That pact may now prove unsustainable confronting its parties with three broad options:
1. The army's top commanders may decide they can no longer get away with the slaughter committed in the name of the regime and the time has come to get rid of Bashar al-Assad. A coup d'etat would be one way.
2. Al-Assad may get in first with a preemptive coup of his own to install in Damascus a military junta composed of trusted loyalists which he and his family will manipulate behind the scenes. This move would ease some of the Arab and Western pressure on him to step down.
3. He could make good on his threat to start a Middle East conflagration along
with Iran and Hizbullah. Most of the action would be aimed against "Israel" forcing the Arab League to go along with Syria and restore its status.
The war rumors sweeping Tehran after the explosions at the Revolutionary Guards bases and the hard choices confronting the discredited al-Assad regime have generated a highly perilous climate in the region. All its capitals are on edge for trouble. This time, the usual conspiracy allegations from Tehran and Damascus won't wash.
Fears of abduction drive the "IDF" to maneuver in the Valley of Jordan
"IDF" spokesperson website
The Chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz called the Valley Brigade, Sunday morning, for a broad training maneuver in cooperation with the Operations Brigade. Among other things, the forces practiced an abduction scenario from the Bekaot Crossing to the Nablus area.
The forces also trained for an infiltration scenario of "vandals" into "Judea" and "Samaria" towns and security forces were called to the scene. The scenario was similar to the terrorist attack in which five members of the Fojel family members were murdered in the Itamar town six months ago.
Head of the "IDF" Inspection Department, Col. Shlomi Fayer noted that "this is the first training exercise on the General Staff level since years and it is held in response to various warnings and threats."
He mentioned that the exercise tested the cooperation between the different divisions and forces.
Three months ago, Lt. Gen. Gantz called for a similar exercise in the Binyamin Brigade. During a conversation he held with the soldiers and without previous knowledge of the commanders, the Chief of Staff called upon all the forces in the Binyamin Division and executed a broad training exercise for them on incidents of violent riots in the area.
Source: Hebrew Newspapers, Translated and Edited by moqawama.org
