’’An Iranian Assassination?!What Are The Odds?’’
Ali Rizk
What are the odds of Iran being involved in an assassination attempt on the Saudi ambassador in the US? What are the odds of Iran paying Mexican drug cartel money to carry out such an assassination in a restaurant?
On the other hand what are the odds of this happening?
The US comes up with a fabricated story of such an assassination for the following
reasons
The targeted person is Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi ambassador to Washington. By accusing the largest Shiite country of assassinating a diplomat from the largest Sunni country the sectarian card quickly comes into play. And when is this happening? At the time where the sectarian card is already being used in Syria where there is an attempt to portray Bashar al-Assad as an Iranian ally and hence a member of some kind of Shiite axis who is coming down against the Sunni's.
All this is happening as the US troop withdraw at the end of this year from Iraq draws closer. The US fears that its withdrawal will leave behind an Iraq that is aligned with Iran and Syria. So it is trying to portray to its allies in the Persian Gulf like Saudi Arabia that a threatening Shiite axis will emerge once the troops withdraw from Iraq. Making such an accusation against Tehran now falls within this realm and forms a call to Riyadh to beware of where Iraq is headed after the American
withdraw.
Then we come to the location. Note how US Attorney General Eric Holder uses the term "assassinate a foreign diplomat on US SOIL". The term US soil brings attention to the national security issue. This at a time where there is a popular upheaval against the economic and financial situation in America. Obama's predecessor George Bush used the strategy of national security and planting fear in the hearts of American's successfully with Al-Qaida. (Note how he was reelected for a second term in 2004 and a major reason was that he was seen by many Americans as the protector of America against Osama Bin Laden).
Obama now uses the same strategy but instead replacing al-Qaida with Iran. On that note Obama's main achievements in the eyes of many Americans are foreign policy issues like the assassination of Osama Bin Laden and his damaged popularity is very much related to the economy and domestic matters.
So adding another "national security achievement to his list" by thwarting an Iranian attack on US soil could be seen as an attempt to make up for lost ground on the domestic level and show the American people he can protect them from so called terrorism.
Also within the context of American elections, this will surely go down well with "Israel" and its supporters in the US who are vital to Obama's reelection. "Israeli" Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone out of his way to shift focus towards Iran especially when criticized for his policies regarding Palestine and this latest accusation falls right in the Netanyahu approach of "Iranophobia" in the region. (Trying to make the case that Iran is behind all the regions troubles and is the beast out to get regional Sunni-led countries). So now the republicans may no longer be able to say that Obama's loyalty to "Israel" is questionable. (Up until now republican candidates have been using this card)
In the end what are the odds of success for Obama?
On one hand his plan of being perceived as America's hero against external threats is unlikely to resonate with the American people because they have learnt their lesson from previous experiences. Also Iran unlike al-Qaida, does not have a history of carrying out such attacks and has never threatened the American people nor has it threatened to attack the American homeland.
And even we assume the American people buy this story (which is almost impossible) then the republicans and the hawks will use this to pressure Obama into attacking Iran knowing at the same time this is undoable. The result will then be that the republicans will expose Obama as someone who is weak on national security and someone who is not taking action against an external threat.
What are the odds of Iran being involved in an assassination attempt on the Saudi ambassador in the US? What are the odds of Iran paying Mexican drug cartel money to carry out such an assassination in a restaurant?
On the other hand what are the odds of this happening?
The US comes up with a fabricated story of such an assassination for the following
reasons
The targeted person is Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi ambassador to Washington. By accusing the largest Shiite country of assassinating a diplomat from the largest Sunni country the sectarian card quickly comes into play. And when is this happening? At the time where the sectarian card is already being used in Syria where there is an attempt to portray Bashar al-Assad as an Iranian ally and hence a member of some kind of Shiite axis who is coming down against the Sunni's.
All this is happening as the US troop withdraw at the end of this year from Iraq draws closer. The US fears that its withdrawal will leave behind an Iraq that is aligned with Iran and Syria. So it is trying to portray to its allies in the Persian Gulf like Saudi Arabia that a threatening Shiite axis will emerge once the troops withdraw from Iraq. Making such an accusation against Tehran now falls within this realm and forms a call to Riyadh to beware of where Iraq is headed after the American
withdraw.
Then we come to the location. Note how US Attorney General Eric Holder uses the term "assassinate a foreign diplomat on US SOIL". The term US soil brings attention to the national security issue. This at a time where there is a popular upheaval against the economic and financial situation in America. Obama's predecessor George Bush used the strategy of national security and planting fear in the hearts of American's successfully with Al-Qaida. (Note how he was reelected for a second term in 2004 and a major reason was that he was seen by many Americans as the protector of America against Osama Bin Laden).
Obama now uses the same strategy but instead replacing al-Qaida with Iran. On that note Obama's main achievements in the eyes of many Americans are foreign policy issues like the assassination of Osama Bin Laden and his damaged popularity is very much related to the economy and domestic matters.
So adding another "national security achievement to his list" by thwarting an Iranian attack on US soil could be seen as an attempt to make up for lost ground on the domestic level and show the American people he can protect them from so called terrorism.
Also within the context of American elections, this will surely go down well with "Israel" and its supporters in the US who are vital to Obama's reelection. "Israeli" Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone out of his way to shift focus towards Iran especially when criticized for his policies regarding Palestine and this latest accusation falls right in the Netanyahu approach of "Iranophobia" in the region. (Trying to make the case that Iran is behind all the regions troubles and is the beast out to get regional Sunni-led countries). So now the republicans may no longer be able to say that Obama's loyalty to "Israel" is questionable. (Up until now republican candidates have been using this card)
In the end what are the odds of success for Obama?
On one hand his plan of being perceived as America's hero against external threats is unlikely to resonate with the American people because they have learnt their lesson from previous experiences. Also Iran unlike al-Qaida, does not have a history of carrying out such attacks and has never threatened the American people nor has it threatened to attack the American homeland.
And even we assume the American people buy this story (which is almost impossible) then the republicans and the hawks will use this to pressure Obama into attacking Iran knowing at the same time this is undoable. The result will then be that the republicans will expose Obama as someone who is weak on national security and someone who is not taking action against an external threat.
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