What kind of Surprises for “Israel” Is the Resistance Hiding?
(TRANSLATED BY moqawama.org )
Ali Dreij - As-Safir Newspaper
The Mediterranean Sea is no longer a fun resort for the "Israeli" Navy that used to send "Hanit" corvette (Literally "the Spear"), "Sa'ar 5" corvette, as well as others to roam the Mediterranean; now access to the Regional Lebanese Waters by "Hanit", "Sa'ar", and their likes is restricted, for memory still bears the scene of "Sa'ar 5" as it exploded in front of Beirut shore in July, 2006.
The Warship's radar, which "monitored something it couldn't identify before Sa'ar was shot, will monitor many things next time. As for the crewmen, who didn't even think a missile might be heading towards them but imagined that what they saw was a normal electronic phenomenon, will have to be aware of the electronic phenomena that their screen will show in the future. Or even they won't have enough time to find out what will be going around them, for they are going to become the favorite bait for hundreds of Hizbullah's maritime missiles, in addition to the maritime surprises Hizbullah may be hiding.
After the "Israeli" Ground Forces were conquered in the end of "the Second Lebanon War", and after the "Israeli" Air Forces failed to conduct a "clean war" resolved in the first few days without having to get the Ground Forces involved, it was the turn of the Navy Forces, the commanders of which had been boasting about their great capacities.
The reason beyond this was the maritime equation launched by Hizbullah Secretary General, His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whereby this equation was to target all "Israeli"-Navy parts wherever they were. In time of war, such equation is enough to make the "Israelis" consider, over and over again, what the Resistance's reaction will be and what kind of maritime surprises it may be hiding.
Since the "Israeli" Entity was established, the Mediterranean Sea has been the vital maritime field for "Israel", whereby on land, "Israel" is surrounded with several countries which it used to consider as counter ones before it signed treaties with Egypt, then with Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.
However, today "Israel" is facing the dilemmatic probability of perfect shut down of all maritime strategic courses in the Mediterranean upon the threat of missile attacks from any point on the Lebanese territories.
Still, the new strategic element, the fortune of oil and gas, alters the maritime war more important, whereby experts estimate that if Lebanon succeeds in extracting this fortune from the settled economic zone in the Mediterranean Sea through the coming years, then this will surpass paying back a great part of Lebanon's debts to enter Lebanon into a state of economic flourish.
It is known that marine routes of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, which are joined together by the Suez Canal, constitute the main courses which "Israel" depends on for its commerce with the three continents, Asia, Europe, and Africa. In particular, "Israel" depends on these courses to export energy sources (petroleum), the essential element for life and military and civil industries in "Israel". For instance, the "Israeli" market consumes approximately % 60 of the oil exported in the sea. This comes at a time when "this market doesn't own oil, but it is waiting to see what will happen to "Tamar" and "Levantine" Oil Fields in the coming days.
In fact, any maritime siege, whether on the side of the Mediterranean Sea or the Red Sea, stalks "Israel" that recalls the War in 1973, when "Israel" was surrounded after Bab-el-Mandab Strait was shut, and no more "Israeli" navigation and commerce were allowed. Ever since, "Israel" has kept in mind that the sea may be a strategic threat that it has to avoid; in case "Israel's" fears become true, it will become an almost isolated "state" the moment any war breaks on. Hereupon, its leaders have to reconsider their calculations, have a second thought about their military choices, and think deeply before they make any step as besieging the Lebanese Shores or try to lay their hands on Lebanon's oil fortune.
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's equation implies besieging "Israel" from the seaside if "Israel" conducts any war on Lebanon, and this equation includes military messages and signs of extremely important and dangerous strategic dimensions for the "Israeli" security; whereby Sayyed's warning that any commercial, civil, or military commercial target along the Mediterranean Sea until the Red Sea tactically means that:
First, all routes and maritime navigation ways taken by foreign and "Israeli", civil and commercial ships are now in the fire range of the Resistance's land-water missiles, and these ships are subject to the Resistance's accurate, strict, and continuous monitoring.
Second, threatening the commercial ships heading to the "Israeli" ports and differentiating them from other ships - especially when the Mediterranean Sea is full of ships, commercial steam liners, and oil tankers going in directions different from "Israel" - conveys that the Resistance has electro-visual means that enable it to attain intelligential information regarding any military or civil move in the Mediterranean Sea, in addition to determining its identity and direction. Well, evidence on this is the Resistance's knowledge that the "Israeli" Sa'er 5 corvette was being used (as a command center) during the "Israeli" maritime siege on Lebanon in the July War in 2006. Likewise, the Resistance owns techniques that enable it to determine the nature of the cargo whether the (monitored) ship is civil or military.
Hanna: A Threatening Regional Arsenal
In this context, the strategic military expert, Brigadier General Elias Hanna, iterates that Sayyed Hassan's promise to besiege "Israel" and prevent its navigation in seas can only be accomplished in case of the presence of an integrated arsenal based on three bases:
The ability of inquiry: This includes using developed maritime radars; wiretapping; visual watching; monitoring; analyzing targets and their quality and distance; military ability to strike with short-range and long-range maritime missiles, fast boats, performing bomb-implantation operations in water, using drones, and depending on frogmen; and the continuous ability to strike maritime targets.
Hereupon, Hanna believes it is very probable that Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran have a perfect and integrated regional arsenal to achieve the aforementioned issue, and this actually allows Hizbullah to benefit from Iran's expertise, especially the expertise of using fast boats, training and habilitating fighters to make them "navy commandoes", and supplying these fighters with the military ordnance required for maritime missions.
Kahwaji: The Resistance Owns Developed Radars and Missiles
The strategic expert, Dr. Reyadh Kahwaji, bases his "analysis" of the maritime equation on the experience of the July War in 2006, which proved that Hizbullah owned anti-ship missiles; however, the kind of the missile (which hit Sa'ar) hasn't been determined so far. He points out that "as Israel claimed that the missile which hit the vessel "Hanit" was a Chinese C-802 missile, Beijing denied this and said that the missile was of type "Kowsar", produced by Iran under license from China. Type "Kowsar" missile, called "Nour", is an anti-vessel missile launched from ground missile launchers.
Kahwaji adds that the majority of experts think that the size of the limited explosion the missile caused to Sa'ar proves that the missile was type "Kowsar", which was inaugurated in Lebanon in July, 2006. Kahwaji stresses that threatening the "Israeli" ports requires that Hizbullah own advanced models of "Nour" missiles, in addition to developed maritime radars which expose ships' entrance to the "Israeli" ports.
Speaking of the "Israeli" ports on the Red Sea, particularly Eilat Port, Kahwaji sees that the only mean for Hizbullah to threaten and strike them is the ballistic missiles. Actually, Western reports have said that Hizbullah received ballistic missiles of type "Scud", the range of which exceeds 300 kilometers. The other choice Kahwaji sees is getting the help of fast boats supplied with "Kowsar" or "Nour" missiles to strike ships at the boundaries of the international "Israeli" waters (which are, in truth, international Palestinian waters). Besides, Kahwaji thinks that Hizbullah needs maritime radars, which might be on cooperative ships in the sea; also, Hizbullah can use "Katyusha" and "Grad" missiles to strike the constructions of the maritime ports in Haifa, Akka (Acre), and other places, and this results in shutting these ports, too.
The expert Elias Hanna admits the difficulty of predicting the shape of the next maritime war, pointing out that this issue counts on Sayyed Hassan's promise. However, he sees that Hizbullah now has accumulative expertise in the electronic war as the ability of wiretapping and espionage, whereby Hizbullah made grand successes and penetrations in this field before and after 2000.
Hanna mentions a very important issue: in case an integrated war breaks on and Hizbullah is unable to wiretap and jam the enemy's electronic means, Hizbullah will at least be able to prevent the enemy from wiretapping and jamming Hizbullah's means, especially the Control and Command Systems. This, actually, is upon the importance of the telecommunications net and the vitality of this technological weapon with respect to Hizbullah.
Reyadh Kahwaji sheds light on some electronic-war means the Resistance may use in any coming war, specifically the maritime radars, confirming their role in determining a ship's place, speed, identity, and direction so as to enable missiles to obstruct them.
In the light of Hizbullah's effort to benefit from the gaps of the July War and avoid falling into them again, Kahwaji sees that Hizbullah won't use fixed radars like it did last time; instead, Hizbullah will use mobile radars activated for a few minutes in order to strike a target before shutting them down and concealing them. This equals the quick "attack and retreat" style, on which the "guerilla war" counts. He points out that "Hizbullah made us familiar with several surprises during its previous confrontations with "Israel", so Hizbullah must own some other surprises for any future war.
"Israeli" Reports on Owning C-802
The "Israeli" Intelligence Debka Website mentions that in July, 2008, Hizbullah deployed a concentrated line of a thousand anti-ship Iranian missiles of type C-802 and a 120-km range. The Site points out that the deployment process of the coastal missiles was reinforced by new radar stations and light espionage planes, which discover the warships navigating in front of the Lebanese Coast. The Site adds that thousands of Hizbullah fighters have been trained for such processes in Iran and Syria.
Military information states that the C-802 missiles, which resemble the famous anti-ship French "Exocet" missile, can be launched by several land, mobile, or fixed missile launchers on shores, planes, and ships. Still, an adjusted model can be launched by submarines, and its flight path is so low that it doesn't exceed 7 to 5 meters. This missile also has anti-jamming capabilities. Technically, upon the small radar interval of the C-802 missile, the capability of the targeted ships to obstruct it s greatly; thus, the probability of the missile hitting the target is 98%. The mentioned anti-individuals, shield-penetrative missile, which carries a war head weighing 165 kilograms of explosives, depends on kinetic energy to penetrate the ship board before exploding in the ship.
In August, 2007, an "Israeli" journalistic report mentioned that Hizbullah owned a Russian missile called "Yakhont SSN-X-26", which could be launched by a land (missile) launcher to hit maritime targets 300 kilometers away. This missile carried a war head of 200 kilograms of explosive materials, and it could fly at 1.5 -meters above the sea level. Hence, obstructing this missile becomes very difficult.
Upon the statement of military sources, "the Jerusalem Post" reports that the Russian missile resembles the American "Tomahawk" and "Harpoon" missiles, and it can chase its target through an advanced radar system. Also, it is thought that this missile is designed in an anti-jamming way. The Newspaper confirms that "Yakhont" is a tactical missile, which can be used against an aircraft carrier and a medium-sized destroyer. Officials of the "Israeli Defense" Ministry believe that "it is a great danger for the ships of the "Israeli" Navy".
Since the issue of gas and oil fortune in the settled, economic zone of each of Lebanon and "Israel" (occupied Palestine) has become significant, it is expected that the strategic threat will be multiplied as the oil platforms that "Israel" is setting up get added to the bank of the maritime targets of the Resistance that hasn't so far announced the aerial equation, which worries the "Israelis" so much. The possibility of the legal conflict between Lebanon and "Israel" exists, and so far there has been no reference capable of playing judge for Lebanon and "Israel".
Hereupon, this may create the probability of "Israel's" assail against a part of Lebanon's maritime right in the settled, economic zone. Therefore, in the absence of any international restraints, specifically American ones, the region might witness a new kind of escalation, especially if Tel Aviv begins the drilling works. Hizbullah has been repeatedly announcing that the Resistance is ready to encounter any assail against the oil and gas fields in the Lebanese Regional Waters. This is what Sayyed Hassan reiterated yesterday as he delivered a speech on the fifth anniversary of the July War.
Upon the statement of a high-ranking source in the American Administration, Haaretz Newspaper had earlier reported that "the main purpose beyond the mission assigned lately to the Envoy Fredrik Hoff is preventing the maritime Lebanese borders with "Israel" (occupied Palestine) from turning into a focus of tension between them, in addition to forbidding Hizbullah from performing operations against the sites of gas drilling carried out by "Israel". Furthermore, the United States is economically interested in this zone because certain American companies are participating in the drilling; hence, the United States is pursuing the prevention of any security disruption in this zone.
Ali Dreij - As-Safir Newspaper
The Mediterranean Sea is no longer a fun resort for the "Israeli" Navy that used to send "Hanit" corvette (Literally "the Spear"), "Sa'ar 5" corvette, as well as others to roam the Mediterranean; now access to the Regional Lebanese Waters by "Hanit", "Sa'ar", and their likes is restricted, for memory still bears the scene of "Sa'ar 5" as it exploded in front of Beirut shore in July, 2006.
The Warship's radar, which "monitored something it couldn't identify before Sa'ar was shot, will monitor many things next time. As for the crewmen, who didn't even think a missile might be heading towards them but imagined that what they saw was a normal electronic phenomenon, will have to be aware of the electronic phenomena that their screen will show in the future. Or even they won't have enough time to find out what will be going around them, for they are going to become the favorite bait for hundreds of Hizbullah's maritime missiles, in addition to the maritime surprises Hizbullah may be hiding.
After the "Israeli" Ground Forces were conquered in the end of "the Second Lebanon War", and after the "Israeli" Air Forces failed to conduct a "clean war" resolved in the first few days without having to get the Ground Forces involved, it was the turn of the Navy Forces, the commanders of which had been boasting about their great capacities.
The reason beyond this was the maritime equation launched by Hizbullah Secretary General, His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whereby this equation was to target all "Israeli"-Navy parts wherever they were. In time of war, such equation is enough to make the "Israelis" consider, over and over again, what the Resistance's reaction will be and what kind of maritime surprises it may be hiding.
Since the "Israeli" Entity was established, the Mediterranean Sea has been the vital maritime field for "Israel", whereby on land, "Israel" is surrounded with several countries which it used to consider as counter ones before it signed treaties with Egypt, then with Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.
However, today "Israel" is facing the dilemmatic probability of perfect shut down of all maritime strategic courses in the Mediterranean upon the threat of missile attacks from any point on the Lebanese territories.
Still, the new strategic element, the fortune of oil and gas, alters the maritime war more important, whereby experts estimate that if Lebanon succeeds in extracting this fortune from the settled economic zone in the Mediterranean Sea through the coming years, then this will surpass paying back a great part of Lebanon's debts to enter Lebanon into a state of economic flourish.
It is known that marine routes of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, which are joined together by the Suez Canal, constitute the main courses which "Israel" depends on for its commerce with the three continents, Asia, Europe, and Africa. In particular, "Israel" depends on these courses to export energy sources (petroleum), the essential element for life and military and civil industries in "Israel". For instance, the "Israeli" market consumes approximately % 60 of the oil exported in the sea. This comes at a time when "this market doesn't own oil, but it is waiting to see what will happen to "Tamar" and "Levantine" Oil Fields in the coming days.
In fact, any maritime siege, whether on the side of the Mediterranean Sea or the Red Sea, stalks "Israel" that recalls the War in 1973, when "Israel" was surrounded after Bab-el-Mandab Strait was shut, and no more "Israeli" navigation and commerce were allowed. Ever since, "Israel" has kept in mind that the sea may be a strategic threat that it has to avoid; in case "Israel's" fears become true, it will become an almost isolated "state" the moment any war breaks on. Hereupon, its leaders have to reconsider their calculations, have a second thought about their military choices, and think deeply before they make any step as besieging the Lebanese Shores or try to lay their hands on Lebanon's oil fortune.
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's equation implies besieging "Israel" from the seaside if "Israel" conducts any war on Lebanon, and this equation includes military messages and signs of extremely important and dangerous strategic dimensions for the "Israeli" security; whereby Sayyed's warning that any commercial, civil, or military commercial target along the Mediterranean Sea until the Red Sea tactically means that:
First, all routes and maritime navigation ways taken by foreign and "Israeli", civil and commercial ships are now in the fire range of the Resistance's land-water missiles, and these ships are subject to the Resistance's accurate, strict, and continuous monitoring.
Second, threatening the commercial ships heading to the "Israeli" ports and differentiating them from other ships - especially when the Mediterranean Sea is full of ships, commercial steam liners, and oil tankers going in directions different from "Israel" - conveys that the Resistance has electro-visual means that enable it to attain intelligential information regarding any military or civil move in the Mediterranean Sea, in addition to determining its identity and direction. Well, evidence on this is the Resistance's knowledge that the "Israeli" Sa'er 5 corvette was being used (as a command center) during the "Israeli" maritime siege on Lebanon in the July War in 2006. Likewise, the Resistance owns techniques that enable it to determine the nature of the cargo whether the (monitored) ship is civil or military.
Hanna: A Threatening Regional Arsenal
In this context, the strategic military expert, Brigadier General Elias Hanna, iterates that Sayyed Hassan's promise to besiege "Israel" and prevent its navigation in seas can only be accomplished in case of the presence of an integrated arsenal based on three bases:
The ability of inquiry: This includes using developed maritime radars; wiretapping; visual watching; monitoring; analyzing targets and their quality and distance; military ability to strike with short-range and long-range maritime missiles, fast boats, performing bomb-implantation operations in water, using drones, and depending on frogmen; and the continuous ability to strike maritime targets.
Hereupon, Hanna believes it is very probable that Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran have a perfect and integrated regional arsenal to achieve the aforementioned issue, and this actually allows Hizbullah to benefit from Iran's expertise, especially the expertise of using fast boats, training and habilitating fighters to make them "navy commandoes", and supplying these fighters with the military ordnance required for maritime missions.
Kahwaji: The Resistance Owns Developed Radars and Missiles
The strategic expert, Dr. Reyadh Kahwaji, bases his "analysis" of the maritime equation on the experience of the July War in 2006, which proved that Hizbullah owned anti-ship missiles; however, the kind of the missile (which hit Sa'ar) hasn't been determined so far. He points out that "as Israel claimed that the missile which hit the vessel "Hanit" was a Chinese C-802 missile, Beijing denied this and said that the missile was of type "Kowsar", produced by Iran under license from China. Type "Kowsar" missile, called "Nour", is an anti-vessel missile launched from ground missile launchers.
Kahwaji adds that the majority of experts think that the size of the limited explosion the missile caused to Sa'ar proves that the missile was type "Kowsar", which was inaugurated in Lebanon in July, 2006. Kahwaji stresses that threatening the "Israeli" ports requires that Hizbullah own advanced models of "Nour" missiles, in addition to developed maritime radars which expose ships' entrance to the "Israeli" ports.
Speaking of the "Israeli" ports on the Red Sea, particularly Eilat Port, Kahwaji sees that the only mean for Hizbullah to threaten and strike them is the ballistic missiles. Actually, Western reports have said that Hizbullah received ballistic missiles of type "Scud", the range of which exceeds 300 kilometers. The other choice Kahwaji sees is getting the help of fast boats supplied with "Kowsar" or "Nour" missiles to strike ships at the boundaries of the international "Israeli" waters (which are, in truth, international Palestinian waters). Besides, Kahwaji thinks that Hizbullah needs maritime radars, which might be on cooperative ships in the sea; also, Hizbullah can use "Katyusha" and "Grad" missiles to strike the constructions of the maritime ports in Haifa, Akka (Acre), and other places, and this results in shutting these ports, too.
The expert Elias Hanna admits the difficulty of predicting the shape of the next maritime war, pointing out that this issue counts on Sayyed Hassan's promise. However, he sees that Hizbullah now has accumulative expertise in the electronic war as the ability of wiretapping and espionage, whereby Hizbullah made grand successes and penetrations in this field before and after 2000.
Hanna mentions a very important issue: in case an integrated war breaks on and Hizbullah is unable to wiretap and jam the enemy's electronic means, Hizbullah will at least be able to prevent the enemy from wiretapping and jamming Hizbullah's means, especially the Control and Command Systems. This, actually, is upon the importance of the telecommunications net and the vitality of this technological weapon with respect to Hizbullah.
Reyadh Kahwaji sheds light on some electronic-war means the Resistance may use in any coming war, specifically the maritime radars, confirming their role in determining a ship's place, speed, identity, and direction so as to enable missiles to obstruct them.
In the light of Hizbullah's effort to benefit from the gaps of the July War and avoid falling into them again, Kahwaji sees that Hizbullah won't use fixed radars like it did last time; instead, Hizbullah will use mobile radars activated for a few minutes in order to strike a target before shutting them down and concealing them. This equals the quick "attack and retreat" style, on which the "guerilla war" counts. He points out that "Hizbullah made us familiar with several surprises during its previous confrontations with "Israel", so Hizbullah must own some other surprises for any future war.
"Israeli" Reports on Owning C-802
The "Israeli" Intelligence Debka Website mentions that in July, 2008, Hizbullah deployed a concentrated line of a thousand anti-ship Iranian missiles of type C-802 and a 120-km range. The Site points out that the deployment process of the coastal missiles was reinforced by new radar stations and light espionage planes, which discover the warships navigating in front of the Lebanese Coast. The Site adds that thousands of Hizbullah fighters have been trained for such processes in Iran and Syria.
Military information states that the C-802 missiles, which resemble the famous anti-ship French "Exocet" missile, can be launched by several land, mobile, or fixed missile launchers on shores, planes, and ships. Still, an adjusted model can be launched by submarines, and its flight path is so low that it doesn't exceed 7 to 5 meters. This missile also has anti-jamming capabilities. Technically, upon the small radar interval of the C-802 missile, the capability of the targeted ships to obstruct it s greatly; thus, the probability of the missile hitting the target is 98%. The mentioned anti-individuals, shield-penetrative missile, which carries a war head weighing 165 kilograms of explosives, depends on kinetic energy to penetrate the ship board before exploding in the ship.
In August, 2007, an "Israeli" journalistic report mentioned that Hizbullah owned a Russian missile called "Yakhont SSN-X-26", which could be launched by a land (missile) launcher to hit maritime targets 300 kilometers away. This missile carried a war head of 200 kilograms of explosive materials, and it could fly at 1.5 -meters above the sea level. Hence, obstructing this missile becomes very difficult.
Upon the statement of military sources, "the Jerusalem Post" reports that the Russian missile resembles the American "Tomahawk" and "Harpoon" missiles, and it can chase its target through an advanced radar system. Also, it is thought that this missile is designed in an anti-jamming way. The Newspaper confirms that "Yakhont" is a tactical missile, which can be used against an aircraft carrier and a medium-sized destroyer. Officials of the "Israeli Defense" Ministry believe that "it is a great danger for the ships of the "Israeli" Navy".
Since the issue of gas and oil fortune in the settled, economic zone of each of Lebanon and "Israel" (occupied Palestine) has become significant, it is expected that the strategic threat will be multiplied as the oil platforms that "Israel" is setting up get added to the bank of the maritime targets of the Resistance that hasn't so far announced the aerial equation, which worries the "Israelis" so much. The possibility of the legal conflict between Lebanon and "Israel" exists, and so far there has been no reference capable of playing judge for Lebanon and "Israel".
Hereupon, this may create the probability of "Israel's" assail against a part of Lebanon's maritime right in the settled, economic zone. Therefore, in the absence of any international restraints, specifically American ones, the region might witness a new kind of escalation, especially if Tel Aviv begins the drilling works. Hizbullah has been repeatedly announcing that the Resistance is ready to encounter any assail against the oil and gas fields in the Lebanese Regional Waters. This is what Sayyed Hassan reiterated yesterday as he delivered a speech on the fifth anniversary of the July War.
Upon the statement of a high-ranking source in the American Administration, Haaretz Newspaper had earlier reported that "the main purpose beyond the mission assigned lately to the Envoy Fredrik Hoff is preventing the maritime Lebanese borders with "Israel" (occupied Palestine) from turning into a focus of tension between them, in addition to forbidding Hizbullah from performing operations against the sites of gas drilling carried out by "Israel". Furthermore, the United States is economically interested in this zone because certain American companies are participating in the drilling; hence, the United States is pursuing the prevention of any security disruption in this zone.
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