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The Undercover parties as Centrists... ashamed to reveal their true affiliations?

The Undercover parties as Centrists... ashamed to reveal their true affiliations?
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Source: Al-Manar TV, 03-02-2009

By Mohamad Shmaysani

This year's parliamentary elections problem in Lebanon is the centrist bloc.
A centrist bloc would comprise a list of politicians who would run "independently" in elections. However in Lebanon, this is not the full story.

A growing popularity of one Christian bloc versus another, or one political bloc against another, means an existential threat.

General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement has emerged as a leading party, mostly for Christians, since his comeback to Lebanon in the wake of the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. He'd been a critic of what he used to term as "Syrian occupation" of Lebanon yet had often called for normal relations with Damascus after the Syrian pullout. He is not neutral as he represents a key constituent of the Lebanese opposition along side other major parties like Hezbollah, with which he has an understanding agreement since February 2006.

Since then, the General and his party have been under fire by the western backed ‘loyalty' bloc - the (US backed) March 14 bloc - that has been seeking to undermine his leadership to no avail. He was one of Israel's main targets in the 2006 war on Lebanon.

THE PARADOX

The opposition, in general, is critical of the centrist bloc while the March 14 group has been preaching and defending it.

Ostensibly based on the premise that a centrist bloc would have independents running for elections, the opposition and the March 14 camp ought to welcome it for its neutrality...of course, democratically speaking.

Before the notion of a centrist bloc came to light, March 14 politicians have been rallying support for what they still believe would be a decisive election in June. Polls have been showing the opposition would win the elections and therefore would have a majority in parliament, would name a prime minister and would form a government...and would literarily control the country.

Hence, rationally speaking, the March 14 camp's support for the rise of a centrist bloc is not graspable given that it will be competing with their candidates as well, and will be further weakening their chances of winning.

"If they were not convinced that this is really the case, they would have not invented the centrist bloc notion which constitutes a mask for the March 14 powers to hide behind. They are sure they would lose therefore they are working on making their foes lose with them, and this is why they sought to involve the President of the republic's name in the notion," former MP Nassser Qandil explained.

PRESIDENT REMAINS NEUTRAL

President Michel Sleiman has been seeking to stay neutral on the issue of the centrist bloc. "I will not enter the election battle. I will neither adopt a candidate nor support another. I will not object to anyone who wins the elections and wants to be later in a centrist or neutral bloc...And I did not commission anyone to speak on my behalf."

THE GOAL

But where does "neutrality" fit in a country like Lebanon? And how could it be projected amid the fierce political division over the mere view of Lebanon's fate, destiny and sometimes its enemy?

"Being neutral has neither color nor taste," Aoun believes. He views the centrist bloc as an alias for the March 14 coalition.

MP Michel Murr, who was once one of Aoun's bloc members and wants to run as an independent, retorted to Aoun saying independent candidates in the constituencies of Metn, Baabda, Kesrouan and Jbeil (Byblos) "have color and taste because they enjoy popularity that scares off those criticizing them."

Yet, shouldn't the "independents" scare off other than FPM candidates as they should be competing, not completing them?

March 14 politicians deny the centrist bloc is their ticket to parliament. However, they have been enthusiastically announcing their readiness to form alliances with ‘independent' candidates so as not to run elections with a full "March 14 list" of candidates "in some constituencies, where it's become nearly impossible for them to win seats. As said by Fares Soueid, the March 14 General Secretariat Coordinator: "This will deprive Michel Aoun of seats from northern Mount Lebanon to Baabda and will diminish Hizbullah's chances of having a Christian ally."

THE WARNING

The Lebanese ought to be very careful, Qandil says. If the opposition does not score a sweeping victory in elections, he explains, "Israel" will launch a new war on the next day. But if the opposition wins, "Israel" will surrender to its utter desperation of bargaining on tampering with Lebanon.

For Christian former minister Suleiman Franjieh, the notion of a centrist bloc is a conspiracy. He slammed Saudi Arabia, Egypt and MP Saad Hariri of conspiring to put an end to the role of Christians in Lebanon and accused "everyone who supports the centrist bloc" of conspiracy. Franjieh believes the spiritual fathers of the centralist bloc are certain embassies and that "US backed March 14 have invested the concept of the centrist bloc due to the fear they would lose in the June 7 parliamentary elections."

If we would speak about a constantly variable thing in Lebanon, this would be politics. Four months before elections are due, politics are liable to change to the worst or to the best, although unlikely, and this also goes for electoral alliances; for in Lebanon, electoral alliances are in some cases different from political alliances.


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