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In Short, Gaza Dunes Liable to Turn into Quagmire

In Short, Gaza Dunes Liable to Turn into Quagmire
folder_openPalestine access_time15 years ago
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Source: Al-Manar TV, 05-01-2009

Some "Israeli" General Staff members had hoped Tel Aviv would call off the ground incursion into Gaza if an appropriate exit plan was developed in time. That turned out to be a fruitless expectation.

International efforts to halt the "Israeli" war on Gaza sought new impetus after the UN Security Council failed to agree a statement on the aggression, with the United States giving strong backing to "Israel" and more time to achieve an accomplishment before diplomacy steps in.
Serious diplomatic activity on the Gaza situation are expected to begin Monday, as French President Nicolas Sarkozy will start his tour in Cairo, Tel Aviv and Ramallah to "restart diplomacy."
Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, is heading a delegation to the Middle East, while Medvedev's Middle East envoy, Alexander Saltanov was also on the way.

France hopes Egypt can rekindle its role as a mediator between "Israel" and Hamas. Haaretz analyzed that "at this point, Egypt is expected to play an important role, despite the tensions between Cairo and Hamas. Egypt wants to see Hamas bleed before it gets fully into the role of mediator. Cairo is now waiting for a formal request by the Arab League before it intervenes."

However, according to observers, Egypt has lost its leading role in the region because it was an accomplice in the blockade of Gaza along with "Israel" on the one hand, and because Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit had rushed to Turkey at the outset of the war to request Ankara begins mediation efforts over Gaza. Another indication that Egypt is retreating from its position as a leading Arab county was the call by Qatari Prince Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani to hold an urgent Arab summit over Gaza as he accused some Arab countries of foiling calls for UN Security Council action because of the lack of coordination of their positions.

"Israel" would like to see a diplomatic agreement bring the military operation in the Gaza Strip to an end - so long as the deal excludes Hamas, according to a decision made Sunday by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his Foreign and War ministers, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak. "Israeli" leadership will convey that message to visiting European statesmen Monday, stressing that an agreement on the Gaza Strip should include both regional and international components.
"Israel's" diplomatic strategy, according to "Israeli" analysts, is based on a conclusion that it will not seek a new cease-fire agreement with Hamas through the services of an external mediator, which decision makers believe only legitimizes the organization.

"Israel" will instead seek separate agreements with so called "moderate Arab states", with the Palestinian Authority and with the international community. "The agreements will be with both the PA and Egypt and then if Hamas will not agree it will pay the price, mostly by even greater diplomatic isolation," a diplomatic source told Haaretz.

According to the daily "Israel" is seeking three agreements:

*On smuggling, a deal with Egypt, with American involvement, which already exists in the form of combat engineers working to uncover tunnels.
*On the crossings, "Israel" would like to bolster a 2005 agreement with the PA, Egypt, and the EU, that will restore use of the Rafah crossing and deployment of PA and EU officials that will oversee its operation.

*On a cease-fire, "Israel" would like to involve the U.S., France and (so-called) 'moderate' Arab countries, in a Security Council agreement that will grant "Israel" the right to respond to Hamas violations.
That is the political process being advanced by Olmert, in conjunction with the ground incursion in Gaza.
The deal in the works is reminiscent of the Grapes of Wrath understanding that governed the cease-fire between "Israel" and Lebanon after "Israel's" war in the spring of 1996.

At the time, a monitoring group consisting of "Israel", Lebanon, Syria, France and the United States was established to deal with violations of the agreement, which banned firing on civilians.
In the present situation in Gaza, "Israel" opposes a UN Security Council decision that would force a cease-fire - as did Resolution 1701, which put an end to the 2006 "Israeli" war on Lebanon. "Israel" is trying not to grant Hamas legitimacy by allowing it to be a signatory to any deal, and wants the Palestinian Authority to play the role of the Lebanese government in 1996 and represent the Palestinians.

If an agreement is reached, "Israel" will try to present the establishment of the security system as an impressive achievement that merits the danger of a major military operation. Experience, though, makes that doubtful: The security committee that includes "Israel", Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and the United States was established several years ago and has yet to lead to anything other than excuses.

Not to mention that the Grapes of Wrath agreement didn't exactly bring quiet neither to Lebanon nor to the Zionist state.
And so the reserve call-up portends bad news to the "Israeli" society that has not changed its approach to soldiers' deaths after the Lebanon failure.

Wars in "Israel" are sometimes redefined as failures after the death of the first reservist. An extended stay in the Gaza dunes, which are liable to turn into a quagmire after the "Israel" army suffered 55 "casualties", including one killed reservist, since the beginning of the ground offensive, would bring that eventuality closer.

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