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Avoiding Hezbollah Trap in Any Third Lebanese War

Avoiding Hezbollah Trap in Any Third Lebanese War
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Eric Rozenman

If war erupts again between "Israel" and Hezbollah in Lebanon, what pitfall should "Israelis" and the West avoid? A "naïve" view that the roles of the Lebanese government and its supporters counterbalance those of Hezbollah [Party of God]. In fact, they're complementary, says Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland [Ret.], former head of "Israel's" so-called "National Security Council".

Avoiding Hezbollah Trap in Any Third Lebanese War

Eiland notes that Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's "threats have become more frequent and more aggressive" in recent weeks... Instead, Nasrallah's bellicosity might reflect confidence gained from being on "the ‘winning side.'"

Parallel comments by Lebanese President Michel Aoun reiterate that Hezbollah is "part of the power protecting Lebanon from ‘Israel'." Such claims are not new but strengthen "what should have been clear for years-that Hezbollah and the government" in Beirut "are one and the same," according to Eiland.

"Israel" and the West have erred for years in seeing Lebanese politics as divided between two camps, the retired major general asserts. There are indeed two sides, the one many see as a pragmatic, moderate, largely Christian, Sunni Muslim and Druze camp reliant on Saudi, US and French aid and a second, group "led by Hezbollah..."

But a "naïve" "good guys versus bad guys" view misses the "unwritten agreement" between the camps, Eiland says. Each will use its advantage; ties with the West in the case of the Christian-Sunni-Druze group, the power as Lebanon's main military force and decision-maker regarding war with "Israel" in the case of Hezbollah.

If a third Lebanese war ["Israel" versus Hezbollah in 2006, "Israel" against the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1982] breaks out, Eiland says "‘Israel' should declare war on the state of Lebanon." Hezbollah possesses an estimated 130,000 short- and medium-range ... mortars, rockets and missiles [said to be more than any NATO country but the United States]... aimed at "Israel".

So Eiland believes "it is only from a really short war [heavily damaging Lebanon's infrastructure] that ‘Israel' will able to emerge victorious and without serious damage to its home front."

If that is so, should the United States continuing providing more than $200 million annually to support Lebanese security forces? Looking not just at President Aoun's pro-Hezbollah rhetoric but also reports of increasing cooperation between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah, Elliott Abrams says yes-if Washington demands that any such trend "be halted and reversed."

Source: Jewish Policy Center, Edited by website team

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