Yemen’s Fight for Peace!

Darko Lazar

The chaotic scene unravels in a mist of indistinct shouting. Passions flare, and anger, confusion and disbelief are the prevailing emotions. Soldiers bark orders at the incensed inhabitants of a house in Saudi Arabia's southernmost Jizan province that lies directly along its border with Yemen.

This is the scene of a forcible evacuation of a region that is about to fall to the kingdom's principal belligerents in its more than yearlong war against its southern neighbor.

Riyadh is threatening to strip locals of their citizenship if they refuse to leave, as Yemeni forces secure considerable military gains across Jizan, reportedly penetrating Saudi territory by as much as 10 kilometers in the latest round of fighting.

But the homegrown opposition to the Saudi-led war against Yemen extends far beyond Jizan's angry residents.

Earlier this week, hundreds of family members of Saudi soldiers and officers fighting in Yemen staged a protest in front of the al-Yamama palace in Riyadh, demanding the return of their loved ones from the frontlines.

According to foreign journalists at the scene and eyewitness accounts, Saudi security forces seized the protesters' cell phones to prevent pictures or recordings of the gathering from being uploaded onto social media - and for good reason.

These are the very families who are supposed to represent the cornerstone of Saudi patriotism, openly chanting, "Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz should account for shedding the blood of our youth".

Trapped in a protracted and devastating conflict that is straining relations with its international allies, intensifying internal power struggles and deepening sectarian strife, the military campaign against Yemen is also burning a hole in Saudi Arabia's pocket.

The Saudis recorded the highest budget deficit at nearly US$100 billion (15% of GDP) in 2015, with projections for 2016 reaching 13.5% of GDP.

Last year, Reuters estimated that Saudi Arabia needed to spend approximately US$175 million per month to support its campaign against Yemen, adding that a further US$500 million would be allocated for a ground invasion.

As a result, Riyadh has introduced economic reforms, including cutting fuel subsidies in half and supporting the introduction of a GCC-wide value-added tax, hoping to ease the pressure of sustaining the conflict.

But for how much longer can the Saudis afford the Yemen war?

The war must go on

After months of indirect negotiations in Kuwait between Yemen's warring sides, the brokers of the gathering reportedly altered the terms of a draft agreement worked out earlier.

The fugitive government of Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his Saudi backers quickly expressed their support for the newly worded agreement last week, safe in the knowledge that their foes would reject it.

Predictably, Yemen's Ansarullah movement and its allies refused the deal.

"What was presented by the [UN] envoy was no more than just ideas for a solution to the security aspect, subject to debate like other proposals," read the Ansarullah statement on July 31.

In the same statement, Ansarullah insisted that any peace plan must first forge an accord based on the establishment of a new, consensual executive authority, including a new president and government.

Meanwhile, the Hadi delegates are advertising a UN plan which calls on Ansarullah to withdraw from three major cities in Yemen, including the capital Sana'a, and hand over their heavy arms.

But pro-Ansarullah activist Hussein Al-Bukhaiti believes that the latest round of talks in Kuwait was never really about peace to begin with.

"The only thing that the Saudis wanted to get out of these peace talks is Ansarullah's weapons. This is the only thing keeping the Saudis from taking control of Yemen. The Saudis have failed to disarm Ansarullah through military means, so now they are trying to do it through the peace talks. The talks focused solely on Ansarullah's weapons," Al-Bukhaiti said.

The peace talks are not officially over, but for the time being at least it appears that all sides in the conflict are gearing up for what could very well be the final round of fighting.

Washington-based Saudi dissident and director at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, Ali al-Ahmed, argues "that we are looking at the final chapter of this war."

"The Saudis continue to use military force to try and extract concessions from Sana'a. They want to get out of Yemen but maintain some semblance of dignity. I think that a peace deal is coming," al-Ahmed opines.

The UN special envoy to Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed announced plans to suspend the peace talks, vowing that negotiations would resume at a later date.

"If these talks are suspended, Ansarullah will wage an open war against Saudi Arabia along the border. We have already seen a fraction of this in the last 72 hours," says Al-Bukhaiti.

As Riyadh grapples with an economic crisis, political instability and territorial losses leading to forced evacuations, the cost of the Yemen war is fast becoming unaffordable.

According to Al-Bukhaiti, "Ansarullah needs to seize one major city in southern Saudi Arabia for the regime in Riyadh to look really weak. And I think this will happen in the coming weeks."

"This is meant to force peace on the Saudis. If the Saudi regime really feels like it is being threatened, then it will accept a peace deal with the Yemenis. The Saudi regime will do whatever it takes to stay alive," he adds.

But the Saudi regime is not done fighting yet. The pro-Ansarullah activist believes that the forced evacuation of Jizan is part of a broader Saudi strategy.

"They could have used the civilians in Jizan as human shields, but they decided against that because Riyadh knows that it is about loose Jizan. Saudi intelligence has already warned of Ansarullah advances deeper into Jizan. Once that happens, the Saudis plan to carpet-bomb these areas, like they did across much of Yemen and they cannot afford to have their own citizens being killed by Saudi fighter jets. It's easy to tell when someone has been killed in an airstrike," said Al-Bukhaiti.

With that in mind, the coming weeks and perhaps months may be especially bloody.

Nonetheless, the Saudi-led operation against Yemen looks increasingly like it has an expiry date.

That day cannot come soon enough for a country facing an ever-deepening humanitarian disaster, a death toll rising to almost 10,000 and at least 370,000 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

Source: al-Ahed News